Letter from Mogadishu: Powerful lesson from region for upcoming Somalia's poll

Ugandan military police officers detain a voter on the ground near a polling station in Kampala on January 15, 2026, during Uganda's 2026 general elections. [AFP]

Member states of the East African Community are holding their breath once again as Uganda elects its Members of Parliament and president in an election that has ramifications across the region.

For Ugandans, it is equivalent to having a date with destiny as the election has vast significance to a country that has known only one president since the National Revolutionary Movement (NRM) swept to power in 1986.

Long-serving President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is taking on musician-turned-politician, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobby Wine in a bruising battle that has seen activists and supporters of the young politician abducted or disappeared.

Two days before Ugandans streamed into polling stations to cast their ballots, the communications authority in the country  switched off the internet facilities countrywide plunging the country into a national communication black-out.

The Ugandan election comes in the backdrop of a controversial election in Tanzania in which President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner with more than 98% of the vote but has since faced internal protests and censure from bodies that observed the October 29, 2025 poll.

Somalia, which goes to the polls in just four months must be watching the developments in the East African region with apprehension on and bated breath on how its own election will turn out.

The Horn of Africa nation is grappling with the election system to adopt as the country’s president pushes the one-person one-vote system with his opponents stuck with the tried-and-tested indirect vote which the country has used since 2004.

The election fever in the region has also hit some of the member states in Somalia with Puntland and Jubaland particularly unhappy with developments in Mogadishu. This is not helped by the fact that the breakaway Somaliland Republic is throwing heavy punches with its independence recognition by Israel, the first country in the world to do so.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud must be watching the developments in Uganda keenly, even as he pushes for the universal suffrage, knowing that it comes with its own complications.

Like most countries in the East African Community, Somalia has a bulging youth population and has a huge unemployment problem, which is fodder for a revolution. The situation is worsened by the ravaging drought situation in the Horn with families in Somalia barely managing a meal every day.

The Somalia president has been relentless in pushing for universal suffrage to be used in the forthcoming poll countrywide. He believes the population is ready for the one-person one-vote but its leaders are holding them back.

However, Mohamud can take comfort in the positive report from Somalia’s first direct local council elections in Mogadishu in nearly 60 years which were held on Christmas day.

 According to a report by the National Union of Somali Journalists, the elections in Mogadishu were peaceful and orderly, but they were held amid a growing wave of misinformation and political bias.

The union said the vote represented a historic milestone, marking the capital’s return to direct local elections for the first time since 1969.

Despite the restrictions, NUSOJ documented no incidents of election-related violence and confirmed that no journalists or media outlets were attacked making the vote the first peaceful direct election experienced by much of Somalia’s population.

This must be music to the incumbent president who has led the campaign for adoption of the one-person one-vote to the detriment of opposition leaders who don’t want change.

The union said the Banadir (Mogadishu) vote offers a foundation Somalia must build on as it moves toward broader direct national elections.

As the city waits patiently for the electoral commission to declare the winners of the Christmas Day vote, the country will be waiting to hear which direction they will take in the month of May when they go to the polls to elect their Members of Parliament and the president.

Meanwhile, are relations between Somalia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on the wane?

For years, the oil-rich Gulf state has been viewed as a significant player in Somalia's security, economy, and politics.

The Emiratis have cultivated multi-layered relationships with both Somalia's federal government and its member states, and has been involved in port operations in Bosaso in Puntland and Kismayo in Jubaland, as well as Berbera in Somaliland.

But in a drastic move on Monday, Somalia's federal government announced the cancellation of all port management and security cooperation agreements with the UAE, accusing it of undermining the country's sovereignty.

The diplomatic fall out between Somalia and UAE is informed by Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.

Following its recognition by Israel, Somaliland pledged to sign up to the 2020 Abraham Accords, which have so far seen the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco establish full diplomatic relations with Israel.

According to the International Crisis Group Somalia's relationship with the UAE has been steadily deteriorating since 2024, when Ethiopia - a major ally of the Gulf state in the Horn of Africa - signaled that it was prepared to recognize Somaliland's independence, in a trade-off that would see it establish a naval base along the breakaway state's coast.

Despite pretending to flex its muscles by cancelling the port deals involving UAE, Somalia's federal government lacks the capacity to enforce its decision to cancel port deals with the UAE, as it does not exercise authority over the breakaway state of Somaliland.

Similarly, it does not have much control over the ports in Puntland and Jubaland, two semi-autonomous regions within Somalia.

The Dubai-based logistics company, DP World, also seems less bothered by the federal government's announcement, saying its operations at Berbera port in Somaliland will continue.

Its statement came as no surprise with Somaliland saying that all its agreements with the UAE "remain lawful and binding".

As for Jubaland, it said it regarded the federal government decision as "null and void", while Puntland condemned it as being "inconsistent with the principles of constitutional governance".

So what’s next for the big boys sitting in Mogadishu now that they seem to have played their last card in regard to their relations with UAE?