Ugandan opposition denounces 'military state' ahead of election

Members of the Uganda Police Force monitor the area as supporters of opposition leader and presidential candidate for the National Unity Platform (NUP) Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, gather to see his convoy on the way to the party’s final campaign rally ahead of the 2026 general elections, in Kampala on January 12, 2026. [AFP]

As dark clouds gathered overhead, young and old members of Uganda's long-embattled opposition gathered for prayers at the home of an imprisoned politician -- the mood both defiant and bleak.

The mayor of Kampala, Erias Lukwago, told the gathering on Sunday that this week's election was a "face off" between ordinary Ugandans and President Yoweri Museveni.

"All of you are in two categories: political prisoners and potential political prisoners," he said.

Museveni is widely expected to extend his 40-year rule of the east African country in Thursday's election, thanks to his near-total control of the state and security apparatus.

The 81-year-old came to power as a bush fighter in the 1980s and has maintained a militarised control over the country, brutally cracking down on challengers.

The latest campaign has seen hundreds of opposition supporters arrested and at least one killed, with the police claiming they are confronting "hooligans".

The main opposition candidate Bobi Wine, real name Robert Kyagulanyi, is rarely seen in public without his flak jacket and has described the campaign as a "war".

He has been arrested multiple times in the past and tortured in military custody.

The only other significant opposition leader, Kizza Besigye, was kidnapped in Kenya in 2024 and secretly smuggled to a Ugandan military prison to face treason charges in a case that has dragged on for months.

His wife, UNAIDS director Winnie Byanyima, hosted Sunday's prayer meeting at their home. She said Uganda has only a "thin veneer" of democracy.

"We are really a military state," she told AFP. "There's total capture of state institutions by the individual who holds military power, President Museveni."

Police 'not neutral'

"The police officers I have met have never looked at themselves as neutral," said Jude Kagoro, a researcher at the University of Bremen who has spent more than a decade studying African police.

Most officers view it as their duty to support the incumbent power, he said, and often require no explicit order to use brute force on opposition rallies.

Museveni's regime has used many strategies to infiltrate and divide opposition groups, including through handouts to different ethnic groups.

Under a system informally known as "ghetto structures", security officials recruit young people in opposition areas who "work for the police to disorganise opposition activities, and also to spy," said Kagoro.

The government was taken by surprise when Wine burst on to the political scene ahead of the 2021 election, becoming the voice of the urban youth, and responded with extreme violence.

Similarly, Tanzania's authoritarian government was caught unawares when protests broke out over rigging in last October's election, and security forces responded by killing hundreds.

The Ugandan government is better prepared now.

"For the last four-plus years, they have been building an infrastructure that can withstand any sort of pressure from the opposition," said Kagoro.

"We are used to the military and the police on the streets during elections."

'Too dangerous'

Still, the authorities are not taking any chances. Citizens are being told to vote and return home immediately.

"The regime wants to make people very scared so they don't come out to vote," said David Lewis Rubongoya, secretary-general of Wine's National Unity Platform.

There has been a spate of arrests and abductions targeting the opposition -- a tactic also increasingly used in neighbouring Kenya and Tanzania -- with rights groups accusing the east African governments of coordinating their repression.

The violence makes it hard for opposition groups to organise.

"The price people have to pay for engaging in political opposition has become very high," said Kristof Titeca, a Uganda expert based at Antwerp University.

"What's left is a group of core supporters. Is there a grassroots opposition? No, there isn't. It's way too dangerous."