Research on the demographics and trends ahead of next year’s polls are pointing to possible flare ups hinged on political maneuvers to retain power by all means, and a change to the status quo at the county levels.
Big money and violent prone youths are already being deployed by political leaders as a tool to intimidate and cow potential rivals in public functions. This subversion of democracy and edging out of rivals can only get worse going forward.
The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) must develop a ruthless action plan on violence mongers. From barbaric and tribal sentiments to ‘community mobilisation for ethnic nationalism’, NCIC must protect citizens from actions geared towards confusion, fear and insecurity.
NCIC must have a solid back up from state agencies such as the Directorates of Public Prosecutions and Criminal Investigations because so far the commission has demonstrated it can achieve very little without their support.
By now, the NCIC must be mapping out zones prone to electoral anarchy so that it can plan on how to curb both pre and post-election violence. Already, political hopefuls are declaring they will retain power by all means which hugely suggests forcefully. My preliminary research indicates some of the areas that should be on the radar of state agencies keen to protect us from political violence.
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In the Rift Valley, Narok, Uasin Gishu and Kajiado counties top the list. In the former, a growing and bitter opposition to the County government leadership regarded as being captained by the smaller clans and immigrant communities.
In the Mt Kenya region, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Kiambu and Murang’a counties are sounding drum beats due to the perceived strength of gubernatorial aspirants positioning themselves to dismantle the status quo.
Mombasa County, a CORD zone, is a red flag area due to vicious internal realignments within the Coalition as well as a resurgence of upcountry people seeking to go for a top seat against Coastal communities.
Kisumu and Siaya counties need serious attention if what is happening in funerals and other public functions are anything to go by. The unleashing of goons against people perceived to be out of political order is likely to get more enhanced.
NCIC must also keep its eyes on Machakos County. Governor Alfred Mutua’s song of change against the establishment of the Wiper Party is bleeding a certain attitude among some people that he must be taught a political lesson. Need we belabour the meaning of teaching other people political lessons?
My submission is that the country can’t sit and watch as political fever and panic bleeds utter acts of hooliganism. The government must ensure we do not scare away potential voters from polling spots for fear of attacks by rival groups. The time to map out these areas and be firm on the early breakers of law and order is now as it will go a long way in securing the citizens’ confidence in a free and fair electoral process.
