Is Somalia heading to a trusteeship rule again?

As the last fully functioning central Government of Somalia had collapsed in 1991, the people of Somalia had so far failed to put their differences aside and agree to form a government of their own. A Government that controls its borders, can uphold the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its nation, and take the interest of its people forward. A Governments that its policies are purely guided by the Somali interest. A Government that is able to pull our people out from poverty and the illiterate. A Government that can fulfil the economic aspirations of our great people. A Government that can initiate a new law to tackle the most critical disease to our nation – the killer of our nationhood – the Tribalism and all its nature and forms. A Government that its leaders are not corrupted in the broader sense of the word.

Having seen the outcome of the failed Kismayo conference that brought together the leaders of federal and regional governments to agree the way forward, it seems that Somalis in one way failed to sort out their differences without foreign intervention. Imaging while our leaders are negotiating over the interest of their clans the interest of the nation is left behind. Others engage to foster the interest of the foreign governments and expect that in return they will enjoy the support of that particular government. For instance, Ethiopia is known to have succeeded to build a very strong network within the Somali political and militarily elites. We have also recently seen that Ethiopian relationship with regional administrations have taken up new economic dimension.  It has concluded an agreement with Somaliland to use the Berbara port and link that corridor to Ethiopian mainland for its own business activities.

Ethiopia has also reached an agreement with Puntland last year, to use Bosaso port for its livestock exportation. Many say that the later agreement is more cynical than any other expected to sign with Ethiopia as it gives Pubtland one dollar out of three dollars charged over by each head of Ethiopian livestock exported from the port, while Ethiopian earns two dollars plus its border Customs taxation tariffs.

There are many more foreign governments constantly involved with Somalia’s internal affairs to influence the political outcome to reach their military goal not to have greater Somali Nation with strong military might, while some others like UAE are more concerned with our economic potentials. They have predicted if Somalia is back on track, it will mean to them a competing economic power house that can in a very short time defeat Dubai for its geographical preference and gateway to Africa. This is why the UAE policy to Somalia has been more distractive than any other Gulf State. UAE has also been competing against Turkish presence in the Country as Turkish companies invested in aviation and marine time industry.

The Government of UAE had historically been one of the best friends of Somalia but many believed that it had looked the other way  the moment that Turkish Company finalized an operational contract with the Government of Somalia, to manage and modernize Mogadishu sea port and upgrade it to international standards.  The aim of the project is said to be a win-win solution for both Somalis and the Turkish. This means that Mogadishu sea port will be enlarged and will have free zone area where Turkish industrial products will be sold and supplied to Africa. This will increase the revenue for the Government and Mogadishu will be the biggest market in the Horn of Africa where Somalis are the middlemen and will have huge benefits in the process of all transactions.

However, this project seems to have taken ground though many attempts made including the land issue where UAE managed to get 40% of the land expected to be used for the sea port enlargement to build its Embassy though the land is much larger than Embassy needs. Thanks to the corrupted leaders of Somalia and their greedy and cash guided mentality.  Nevertheless, I think it will not be difficult for the host government to make shifts of diplomatic premises from one area of the capital to the other under international law considering its own land policy. But it will more or less have its cost.

Kenya had also recently joined the active players sending its forces into the country saying that it is there to fight against Alshabaab and to help the Government of Somalia to stabilize the country and extend its control over the southern regions. So far, Kenya has never been invited to the Federal Government of Somalia to consolidate the gains made by its forces including the capture of Kismayo port that could have been used to generate revenue for the Government. What we have seen on the contrary – Government officials were deported from within their territory.

Jubaland State formation has experienced with a lot of foreign influence mainly from Kenya and Ethiopia. It is not clear whether those two Governments are in agreement to that end. But many say that Ethiopia and Kenya have conflicting interest in the region.  It remains to be seen whether Kenya which has security as well as economic interest in Juba regions will remain committed, though the main reason pushing Kenya to engage “the marine border dispute”, was taken to the International Court of Justice.

The Federal Government of Somalia initially opposed the Kenyan military intervention into the country and its proxy local Raskamboni militia led by Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe. It championed for the UN Security Council not to approve IGAD’s request backed by Kenya of a marine component for AMISOM. The then Somali Foreign Minister Hon. Fawsia Yusuf Haji Adam attended the UN Security Council meeting on the case and precisely asked the council to reconsider the issue on their table.

Mr. Madobe was later declared to be the elected leader of Jubaland State though seemingly proper elections were not held.  After the selection of Madobe, the previously allied militias fighting against alshabaab had splintered into two fronts. One mainly composed of Ogaden and other front mainly made up of Marehans whom were later forced to get out of Kismayo after three days of fighting that resulted massive casualties on both sides. Kenyan Forces were allegedly said to have been directly involved in that fight, and that is why KDF is not welcomed in the vast geographical area of Jubaland dominated by Marehans.

As the antagonistic situation and local grievances went on for years without been considered either by KDF or the Federal Government itself as a natural body, the Alshabab took that opportunity to influence the locals and win their hearts and minds to support the struggle or at least give space to KDF. However, this does not mean that Marehans are allied with alshabaab. Marehans had since then fought against alshabaab and with the support of Ethiopian Forces under AMISOM pushed the militia out of almost all administrative districts of Gedo region, as Bardera was the last district captured from them.  Again, alshabaab’s recent attack at KDF base in El-Adde proved the fact that Kenyan forces are operating in a very hostile environment where they are seen as an occupying foreign force rather than a Peace Keeping Mission. The spokesperson of KDF had said that SNA camp was first attacked and KDF in support of SNA engaged a counter attack but this has not been the case as SNA has no camp in El-Adde as to the moment the attack happened since the Somali Forces previously stationed in El-Adde already moved to Bardera earlier in 2015.

Marehan Militia in Gedo and Juba region are generally regarded as SNA forces in southern regions though the federal government had never practically succeeded to re-integrate all clan and regional militias into the National Army. Marehans also consider themselves to be the sole guardian of the country’s southern borders from any external threat to the independence of Somalia.

Even though I have highlighted some activities and named some Governments which practically engage to destabilize our country, the foreign interferences into our affairs had virtually reached an unprecedented scale. Simply because, our political culture invites many foreigners to act. Our Security and Intelligence apparatus have no capacity to keep guard the external threats to the national security and territorial integrity of the country while all of their efforts are concentrated towards the internal enemy the Alshabab.

The federal system seems to have further complicated the recovery process. It has fragmented the nation and created tribal regional states with the possibility of long way to overcome. Each president of a particular tribal state is acting as an independent State. He has his personal connection with one of the neighbouring governments and has his own privet relations with foreign governments. He will conclude agreements. I wonder if military agreements were already made no matter the other imbalanced trade agreement.

Having seen all this, I came to the conclusion that the current AMISOM forces from the neighbouring countries will never bring peace and stability to Somalia since they are assumed to have their own interest and are seen by many as an occupying force. Therefore, Somalis need to seek one more alternative way out. The National Youth should lead a popular front from all regions and stand against the evil things and fight to the end to save the nation or take a painful choice to compromise the country’s 56 years of independence and put it under Turkish Trusteeship Rule. Why Turkey? Turkey is a Muslim country that we share a lot with. It also has the militarily and diplomatic capacity to wipe out all other spoiler nations and can change the situation for the better.

gurhan4@yahoo.com

Farhan Gurhan is a senior Foreign Service officer of the Government of Somalia. In the last eight years he was posted to several countries as a career diplomat including Turkey, Syria and Kuwait.