If there was ever a looming political headache for influential politicians in government and the Opposition, then it surely must be the political succession of the 2022 General Election.
That is if President Uhuru Kenyatta survives the 2017 General Election. Politicians playing the long range game have their eyes set on the presidency in 2022, subject to Uhuru’s exit.
Yes, Uhuru has promised his deputy, William Ruto, that he will inherit the seat of power for at least ten years. That promise is based on the premise that after a decade of understudying Uhuru, Ruto will be ripe for the highest office in the land.
Ruto is not in a hurry. He appears not keen to rock the boat in 2017.
In fact, he is one of those who pushed for the Jubilee Party and the taming of political hookers who hop from one party to another. Consolidating Jubilee Party support is a “long game” strategy in hope that an endorsement from Uhuru Kenyatta will place Ruto at State House. It is plausible. Not guaranteed.
Assuming Uhuru wins in 2017 and steers Ship Kenya to 2022, he will have to shepherd the Mt Kenya vote towards Ruto. He will have to eliminate all opposition within the Jubilee Party and ensure Ruto is the undisputed political heir apparent. He will have to ignore all elements such as Kiambu Governor William Kabogo, Meru Governor Peter Munya and nominated Senator Paul Njoroge — who have told Ruto that there will be a fresh political deal in 2022.
It is curious that no one is talking about the running mate for 2022. What if Uhuru becomes Ruto’s running mate?
It would be easy, really, feeding the obsequious see-no-wrong supporters with the drivel that ‘he will be there to support Ruto to complete the promises in the Jubilee manifesto until 2032’? Russia’s President Vladmir Putin did it with Dmitry Medvedev. Who says Uhuru can’t try it with Ruto?
Then, who knows what deal Uhuru cut with former President Daniel Arap Moi —t he deal that saw Uhuru end up as the preferred successor back in 2002? No one! What if, that deal involved Moi’s son, Gideon, the current Baringo Senator and the presidency?
When he picked Uhuru in 2002, Moi told his supposed loyalists that politics and friendship don’t mix. What if Uhuru pulls that card on Ruto? The Kalenjin vote bloc won’t complain. They will be having their second bite at the presidential cherry. Everyone else will give Ruto the ‘I-told-you-so’ shrug. Politics is mean.
What if Uhuru loses in 2017? Will he tell Ruto come 2022 that it is his time to try for a second term? What are the guarantees that he won’t lose when he tries?
The wild card is, if Uhuru gets an overwhelming majority in Parliament in 2017 through the political behemoth that is the Jubilee Party, what would stop him from borrowing from his regional friends – Yoweri Museveni (Uganda) and Paul Kagame (Rwanda)—to abolish the presidential term limits?
The number of unconstitutional laws passed within the first term would be a good place to begin. The Judiciary? Not this time. He will have amended the Constitution and using State resources and the Jubilee Party machinery, steamrollered through a referendum to ensure the term limits are abolished. The Constitution cannot be unconstitutional.
The only certain thing is that 2022 will be a crowded field of ambitious politicians seeking to govern the country. Opposition supremo, Raila Odinga, if he wins 2017 will be in the race for a second term. If he loses 2017 or doesn’t vie, 2022 will be an option.
He will be 76 years old – the same age Mwai Kibaki was when he began his second term. But Raila, who has vied for the presidency three times, and who has come second, twice, and disputed the election results both times, will have to silence critics who always tell him to pick another person because he is old.
It will be political open season. Apart from Raila, Ruto, and Gideon there is Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho, former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, former Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, former presidential candidates who lost in 2013 – Martha Karua, Peter Kenneth, Mwalimu Abduba Dida—and those who previously vied for the presidency such as Charity Ngilu and James Orengo. Meru Governor Peter Munya has also indicated that he will be in the race.
There may also be Isaac Ruto, the most visible governor and champion of devolution. Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, after serving for two terms at the helm of the most-populous county outside the capital will be itching to go national.
Alphonce Shiundu is a Nairobi-based journalist and an independent content developer.
shiunduonline@gmail.com