I have always observed that Kenya is a nation of very high potential, but a disappointing underachiever. This is, may be, because we have acquired the knack of missing important turning points in our history. In 1962 Julius Nyerere had delayed the independence of Tanganyika so that the three East African countries could be free at the same time and then come together into a political union. This never happened.
Subsequently even the East African Community (EAC), doing very well in those days, was disbanded due to petty political differences and transient interests of egoistic politicians.
Both Kenya and East Africa missed an important turning point in our history. An East Africa, united at birth, would have been a very different adult today.
After the Second World War, the Europeans took the route towards integration: this journey made a substantial difference to European development.
We are now heading to 2014 and one would have thought that the EAC has recently covered so much ground after its revival that recapturing the federation initiative should be much easier. Not so easy, say the Heads of State.
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We may yet miss another turning point in our history and achieve well below our potential. In fact the Community may need to be reconfigured, according to the politicians. And all this with very little input from the East African people. What political tyranny is this?
It is unlikely that Kenyans, being so highly enlightened these days, would appreciate major decisions being made by government without taking into account the interests and concerns of the people. One of such concerns and interests is what happens to our oil wealth. And on this I will address our readers today so that we are prepared to make a more beneficial turn at this juncture.
On November 23, Kenyans woke up in the morning to read in the daily newspapers that the British oil company, Tullow, had discovered even more oil deposits in northern Kenya, to be specific in Turkana.
Tullow’s Agete-1 exploration well in Block 13T had discovered and sampled moveable oil with an estimated 100 metres of net oil pay in good quality sandstone reservoirs. This would, no doubt, substantially supplement the already known deposits in Twiga South, Ekales and Ngamia.
Tullow then declared 2014 as its year of major explorations and discoveries aimed at propelling Kenya into the league of global oil players.
But Tanzania and Uganda are not lagging behind Kenya: they too are eyeing 2014 as a game-changer in playing in the big oil league. Already Tullow is busy in both countries having unearthed 1.7 billion barrels of oil around the shores of Lake Albert, promising Uganda 2 billion dollars a year once production, delayed due to squabbles between the government and oil companies.
The future of Tanzania is written in her large deposits of gas, and equally promising potential for oil. The three countries joining hands to face multinationals and global oil sharks with joint policies would have a stronger bargaining position than going on with the lone ranger games they are engaged in today.
Sooner rather than later the geology of hydrocarbon deposits will disobey the borders that separate the three countries and they will be compelled to settle common interest together rather than fight wasteful wars over resource claims.
Assuming, therefore, that the sort of co-operation we have seen in Lapsset is replicated in the exploitation and management of hydrocarbons, particularly oil, in the region, what else would follow logically from this to help East Africa gain positively from the energy bonanza?
Oil must, first and foremost, not emerge as a curse to the East African economies the way it has done in Nigeria. The selfish political wheeler dealers that use government to line their pockets from the oil bonanza while impoverishing their own people must not be allowed to occupy centre stage in the political economy of oil production and marketing.
The East African governments must set up institutions that will treat oil and other hydrocarbons as the wealth of the state and the people, to be exploited and sold in the common interest of the people now and in the future.
Norway has already set up a good example for all to follow. When oil was discovered off the continental shelf of Norway in 1969, Norwegian politicians came up with a policy that saw the opportunity as creating long-term wealth for Norwegians as a whole; the proceeds of oil were to be managed prudently without upsetting the economy in any way, especially through hyperinflation.
It is also important to note that Norway programmed her oil exploitation very carefully: she never drilled everything from below the sea all at one go. In any case, this is what the US has done. Knowing full well that she has had oil deposits in such places as Texas, she goes out of her way to hunt for oil in other countries, while using her domestic resources rather strategically.
Establishing solid democratic governments, with institutions that work, is therefore a vital condition for ensuring that the energy bonanza we are entering into will develop the region and transform the standard of living of the East African people.
