The economic dilemma of ‘old’ counties

BY XN IRAKI

KENYA: In the last few months, the reality of devolution has started sinking in.

The old “developed” counties like Kiambu have not offered investors any incentives like free land. They are entangled in internal squabbles like new local charges, which look unreasonable to the lay person but makes a lot of economic sense.

Why do we want free lunch? The development of old counties  is an illusion and a vast majority of their citizens are poor. Did I hear of jiggers in Murang’a? I hope it’s a joke.

Devolution opened a Pandora’s box. Kiambu Governor William Kabogo’s dilemma is not unique.

Exhausted resources

The old counties have exhausted their resources; their only remaining resource is high population that comes in handy during polls.

Look at Kiambu or Kisii; no wonder people started leaving there a long time ago.

Both Kiambu and Kisii contribute a lot to the diaspora. Minnesota is a little Kisii and the Boston area is a little Kiambu, while the Baltimore area is little Murang’a. There are other enclaves elsewhere in the US. I bumped into a Gikuyu church service in Alabama! 

The old counties are also contributors to local diaspora. Is anyone surprised that while some counties are boasting of the billions they have attracted, other counties are making headlines for kidnapping for ransom?

What options do the old counties have?

The old counties have their people as the greatest resources. They are a big market for goods and services. That means if they could start any industry, they have a ready market.

But which industries can they start? Their best option is services; they need less land but lots of brains. If they focused on financial services, agriculture, tourism and education, they could turn their fortunes around.

They have already had a headstart in finance, looking at the number of Saccos and chamas in existence.

In tourism, they are yet to package themselves. In a country where the Big Five is what tourism is all about, it is going to be hard. No one wants to go see microscopic pieces of land.

They could build on their head start in private education.  They can become the Massachusetts of the USA that boasts of the top universities like Harvard or MIT. Is education not a leading export in Uganda and Australia?

Their other option is to mechanise agriculture and consolidate land into bigger pieces, a real revolution.

It makes no economic sense to divide five acres among 10 sons, resulting in 10 toilets, 10 bomas, and other land wasting buildings.

The high global population ensures there is market for agricultural produce, and there shall always be. Value addition will make the counties richer.

The other option is to become net exporters of labour to new counties and around the world. Think of India and computer scientists. That will demand new thinking in educating the next generation. Can you add to the list old counties?

What of the new counties like Marsabit or Lamu?

They can avoid the mistakes of the old counties such as land sub-division and a too-fast population growth. They can leapfrog the same way Africa skipped fixed lines in telephony.

But their greatest problem is the lack of skilled human resources to run the new counties. That might explain Tullow’s problem in Turkana. If they can import human resources from old counties, that would give them a headstart.

Catalysts of growth

The US has been importing scarce human resources every year. Such “imports” are usually very motivated. Interestingly, it’s cheaper for the new counties to import such human resources. Ever heard of poaching?

Devolution was to give counties a say in their own development. The reality is that they have to depend on each other. Even countries depend on each other. It may be that symbiosis among counties is a better catalyst of economic growth than self-containment. 

Look at trade data for USA; only 11 per cent is external, with the rest being  among states. Have you heard anyone talking about inter-county trade?

Let’s be honest, the old counties are like Britain. It had its turn leading the industrial revolution and is now focusing on services. The new kids on the block are the Brics — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. I insist we add Kenya to make Bricks. Which counties  make our Bricks?

There is a real possibility that by 2050, the list of wealthy and influential counties will change. In fact, that change has begun.

What I cannot bet on is that the list will be surprising. You are free to come up with your list, which we shall compare in 2050 — wherever we shall be.

The writer is a lecturer and MBA programme coordinator, University of Nairobi.