David Kahoro stands silently on the shores of Lake Nakuru in Mwariki, Nakuru West, his eyes fixed on a group of pelicans floating on the water.
For him, the anticipated El Niño rains are more than a weather forecast; they bring back memories of the water that took his home.
“Do you see those birds there? That is the exact point where my home was,” said Kahoro as he pointed towards the birds.
In 2020, Lake Nakuru crossed its familiar shoreline, swallowing homes, farmland, roads and other infrastructure around Mwariki. A government assessment recorded 352 affected households in the area.
Kahoro was among those displaced. Six years later, he is still waiting for compensation.
“Six years later, we are still out in the cold. We are yet to receive compensation for the land and property we lost. The government should expedite the exercise because more people are getting displaced at the moment,” said Kahoro.
Now, as Kenya prepares for the heavy rainfall season, he is watching the same lake with renewed unease.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecast above-average rainfall in several parts of the country during the season, raising concern that further rises in lake levels could worsen an already difficult situation for communities living around the swollen Rift Valley lakes.
“We are even worried now that they have said El Niño is coming. Some people might be displaced again,” he added.
At Lake Nakuru National Park, the changing shoreline has transformed a landscape once familiar to wildlife, tourists and rangers.
“Earlier, the size of the lake was 44 square kilometres, but currently it has extended to 80 square kilometres,” said Lake Nakuru National Park Assistant Director Martin Omondi.
The expansion has changed more than the view. Inside the park, old roads now end at the water’s edge, while others disappear beneath the lake. Parts of the fence, the old gate, offices and staff houses have also been submerged.
With the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) preparing for another possible rise in water levels, the agency is opening and rehabilitating routes on higher ground to maintain access to the park.
“Already, we have a stretch of 130 kilometres that has been contracted and rehabilitated in preparation for the El Niño. Already, the contractor is on site, and that is one of the mitigation measures that we have taken to ensure that the road network for our visitors is improved,” Omondi said.
KWS has mapped security bases and offices that could be affected and procured tents for temporary offices and staff accommodation if necessary.
But keeping the park accessible is only part of the challenge.
As the water takes more ground, wildlife is also being pushed into an increasingly altered landscape.
KWS expects some animals to lose habitat and move towards boundaries, increasing the possibility of encounters with neighbouring communities.
“Currently, we are doing rehabilitation of our fence line in some areas which have been vandalised or where we have weak fences that have started [to weaken], so the work is ongoing. And even during El Niño, we shall be doing regular inspection along the fence line and doing repairs on time,” said Omondi.
He says they also expect human-wildlife conflict to increase during the rains and will step up patrols along the boundary.
“We shall be enhancing our wildlife monitoring and conducting rescue operations where necessary,” said Omondi.
Lake Nakuru was once famous for its large population of lesser flamingos feeding in its shallow alkaline waters. But increasing freshwater inflows are changing the lake’s conditions.
“With a lot of water coming in, it has slightly changed the alkalinity of this water, affecting the conditions that support the birds’ food. The flamingos have shifted their distribution, with more of them now concentrating towards the southern part of the lake,” Omondi said.
Freshwater birds and fish have also become more evident as the lake’s character changes.
The problem is even more visible around Lakes Baringo and Bogoria in Baringo County.
At Loboi in Baringo South, Area Chief Festus Kiptishia estimates that about 250 households have been displaced and three villages affected.
“An area of land which was used for farming, about 2,500 acres, is already inside the water,” he said.
The loss has affected families that depended on the land for food and income.
Roads have also been cut off, while homes, businesses and public facilities have been affected by the rising water.
Jonathan Tireito, a resident, remembers when Lake Bogoria was still several kilometres away.
“This lake, when it was still very far away, it was like about six to seven kilometres away,” he said.
Residents started seeing the water reach homesteads around 2013. At first, they expected it to retreat.
“We thought it would reduce, but instead it is increasing daily and it has caused several damages,” Tireito added.
Families that once combined farming and livestock keeping have been forced to move. Some are staying with relatives and friends, while others have sought refuge elsewhere.
Yet many still have title deeds for land now covered by water.
“We have title deeds, but the land is in water, so that document becomes just a paper,” he added, saying that some displaced residents have been living in areas where the water is highly saline, raising concerns about their health and living conditions.
The rising water has affected both wildlife habitat and tourism.
Michael Kimeli, a resident, says areas where flamingos used to feed and rest have been flooded, while grasslands that supported gazelles and other wildlife have also disappeared, pushing some animals towards neighbouring communities.
The rising water has also submerged some of the hot springs that once attracted tourists to the lake.
“When water floods deeper to the communities, that means crocodiles will definitely wake up in somebody’s homestead or the hippos will invade farms,” he said.
But the bigger concern is what could happen if the waters of Lake Bogoria and Lake Baringo eventually meet.
The two lakes are different. Lake Baringo is freshwater, while Lake Bogoria is saline and alkaline.
As their water levels continue to rise, the distance between them has narrowed, raising concerns about what a connection between the two systems could mean for the environment and communities.
“This swelling started in 2011. Up to now, it’s almost merging with Lake Baringo. You see how when salt and freshwater meet, it will be a disaster,” said Kiptishia.
The potential connection has raised concerns over possible changes to the ecosystems of the two lakes, particularly the freshwater environment on which communities around Lake Baringo depend.
The government is now considering measures to prevent that from happening while also dealing with the water that has already flooded homes and farmlands.
One of the proposed measures is the construction of a dyke around Lake Bogoria to help contain its saline waters and prevent them from spilling into Lake Baringo.
At Lake Baringo, authorities are also planning a major canal to divert excess water away from vulnerable areas towards Tiaty.
Speaking during a public participation exercise in the area, Major General William Kamoira of the Kenya Defence Forces said the response requires different levels of government to work with residents who have lived through the flooding.
“We want to combine efforts from the national government and county government. We have seen submerged houses and displaced people. We don’t want to do something which is a quick fix; we want a long-lasting solution,” he said.
The proposal is intended to reduce pressure on settlements and farmland while creating an opportunity to use the water for irrigation.
The Kenya Defence Forces is part of the multi-agency effort to implement the proposed intervention alongside national and county government agencies.
For residents, the proposals offer hope, but they also come after years of waiting as water continues to spread.
Director of Climate Change Dr Pacifica Ogolla says the response must go beyond the anticipated El Niño rains.
“If we see ahead, maybe five to ten years from now, maybe this water will continue to increase. So even if we say we try to get a solution, it is important we get a long-lasting solution. We can’t just focus on Lake Baringo and Bogoria water only during El Niño,” she said.
She said the Government is working closely with residents who have experienced the changes first-hand.
Baringo County Governor Benjamin Cheboi says the scale of the problem is too large for the county government to handle alone.
“We as county government are not able to handle it alone; it needs concerted efforts,” he said.
But as the rains approach, Cheboi says residents should not wait for government assistance when their safety is at risk.
