By Juma Kwayera
An imminent administrative vacuum in southern Somalia forced the Kenyan Defence Force to slow down on its mission to capture Kismayu, the ultimate prize in the war against Islamist militants desperate to keep it under their control.
As a consequence, representatives of major clans in the region have been meeting in Karen, Nairobi, to agree on a power sharing deal once the Al Shaabab militants are driven out of the port city.
The talks sponsored by Inter-Governmental Agency for Development (Igad), have been kept under wraps – not even the Somalia Embassy in Nairobi has been willing to divulge information about the progress meeting. Kenyan authorities have too maintained a tight leash on their plans to capture Kismayu.
Somalia’s ambassador to Kenya, Mohamed Ali Nur, confirmed to The Standard On Sunday that a series of meetings have been taking place in Karen.
The meetings are intended to come up with an administrative structure that accommodates all clan interests in Sector Two, which is under the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) in the war against Al Shaabab.
The contest for the control of Kismayu, involves three major clans in southern Somalia, also referred to as Jubbaland. These are the Marhan, Ogden and Harti. Initially, KDF had been expected to seize Kismayu from Al Shaabab mid this month.
However, fears that the fall of Kismayu would trigger a fresh conflict among militia groups allied to Sheikh Ahmed Mohammed Madobe, whose Ras Kamboni militia and Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaah (ASWJ) led by Prof Mohammed Abdi Mohammed ‘Gandhi’, necessitated the cautious approach.
Fear of fresh conflict
Whereas Ras Kamboni is fighting alongside KDF, ASWJ is allied to Ethiopia and coalesces around Prof Mohammed Abdi Gandhi.
Both have been pushing for semi-autonomy similar to Somaliland and Puntland’s. The stability of the region rests on the delicate balancing of the interests of the Marhan and the Ogden, which in the past has taken turns to control the economy of the seaport.
While KDF has been operating in Jubbaland with the Ogden, Ethiopia on the other hand is allied to Marhan.
Security experts familiar with clan rivalries in Somalia say moving into Kismayu without a clear plan of power sharing would have precipitated another crisis. Dr Mohammed Ali, conflict and security expert on eastern Africa says the delay in attacking Kismayu is informed by the Ethiopian experience in Mogadishu in 2006.
“When Ethiopian tanks rolled into Mogadishu expecting a fight, they found that Islamic Courts Union (from which Al Shaabab sprung) had surrendered and left the town.
Ethiopians have never recovered from the negative impression painted of them,” observes Dr Ali. The Amisom forces in southern Somalia have also been taking precautions in anticipation of asymmetrical war.
“Al Shaabab can choose to fight an unconventional war like what is happening in Mogadishu. This means they can lie low and allow Amisom to move in. In the event of such a strategy, civilians would be used as collateral damage and in the process Al Shaabab will have succeeded in painting KDF as devils who should be hated,” according to Dr Ali.
In Mogadishu, Al Shaabab has resorted to booby traps, sniper fire and improvised explosive devices to fight. A Somali source that preferred anonymity points out all actors in southern Somalia would rather attack Kismayu with a clear plan by ensuring the interests of all clans are taken care of.
“Ethiopian troops are carrying with them the interests of the Marhan while KDF represents the interests of Ogden clans. The strike on Kismayu is supposed to be a corporate affair. If the Ethiopians manage to weaken Al Shaabab first, then the Marhan will seize control of the seaport.
Peace building
If KDF take control of the port, it will have landed the Ogden an important economic lifeline. For the attack to be successful, it will have to be a joint strike that leaves no power vacuum,” our source said.
Even as the region waits for the fall of Kismayu to the TFG and allied forces troops, there are also growing concerns about Ethiopia’s role in southern Somalia. The Ogden clan, which is also found in Ethiopia and northern Kenya, has been fighting for autonomy and it is said Addis Ababa is not ready to give its leaders room to operate.
“Ethiopia has made instability in Somalia part of its foreign policy and security strategy. Every time there is instability in Somalia, Ethiopia takes advantage of it because it diverts international attention from its domestic affairs. “The quest to democratise Ethiopia and improve human rights record is out of the question for as long as Meles Zenawi remains in power,” according to our source.
Zenawi, he says, has always ensured any Government that takes the reins of power in Somalia must serve its interests. Of the regions of Somalia, Jubbaland has a propensity to produce clan warlords and in the event that Ethiopia and Kenya do not synchronise their push to take control of Kismayu.
Almost all warlords who have attempted to grab power in Mogadishu – including sitting President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh – have had Kismayu ‘experience’: benefitting from the proceeds of crime.
Ambassador Nur says against all odds, the international community has been supporting peace building in Somalia. “Igad, through Kenya and Ethiopia have been supportive of peace in Somalia.
That is why European Union and the US have held talks with the President, Prime Minister and the Speaker in an attempt to find a permanent solution to the Somali crisis. They have been financing the training of the police and military, which should take over from Amisom once Al Shaabab is driven out and the entire country declared secure,” says the Somali envoy.
