Right or wrong, the Luo community is the most politically vocal and plays politics seven days a week at the expense of many other things.
Despite this, the Luo have never voted over 70 per cent in party nominations and general elections.
The leading county in Nyanza region voted 68 per cent or so while Kiambu voted almost 90 per cent in 2013.
A whopping 800,000 votes were not cast in 2013.
This year, many potential voters in Nyanza had to be whipped to go and pick their national ID cards and register as voters.
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In 2013, a governor, several MPs and MCAs in the region were elected via other political parties after they defected from ODM.
Did any serious politician expect their relatives, and supporters to vote for the ODM presidential candidate wholeheartedly in the general elections? I don't think so.
Whether politicians who defect from ODM after being unfairly denied party tickets are Luos or not, many of them will not vote for the ODM presidential candidate.
They are human. They will want to revenge.
It is a matter of simple logic and pure arithmetic. You cannot deny a politician a party ticket unfairly and expect him, his relatives and supporters to vote for you. Nowhere on the globe.
Many of the Luo ODM defectors will ask voters to vote for them as individuals and then vote for the ODM presidential candidate.
In addition, poor voter turn-out in Nyanza - where politicians defect from ODM to other parties - may mean the defectors and their supporters never voted for ODM in full
