Surveillance and quick response only way to minimise food crisis

The current drought situation in Kenya has begun debate about our preparedness as a country in responding to incidences of drought, and whether we ever learn from such incidences to inform our response strategies.

The country has, in recent times faced droughts that continue to increase both in frequency and intensity. This coupled by increasing levels of poverty, has made it difficult for many households to cope with the incidences of drought.

The drought has affected crop and livestock production and yields. The result of the prolonged drought is that many people are staring at famine, unless measures are taken to address the situation.

Under normal rain conditions, annual maize production in Kenya is about 40 million bags while the annual maize demand is between 38 million and 51 million bags based on annual per capita consumption of between 72 and 98kg.

The national maize yields have remained low, averaging about 1.67 tonnes per hectare compared to yields of up to 6 tonnes per hectare in the developed countries. Since 1994, maize consumption has outstripped production and the country has had to import to plug the deficit, mainly from the neighbouring countries.

Maize production during the 2016 long rains fell short of the projected levels by about 5 million bags. In addition, only about 25 per cent (1.7 million bags) of the projected maize production in the short rains season was realized.

According to the food situation assessment and projections recently conducted by Egerton University’s Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development, the country had about 12.3 million bags by the beginning of the year, enough to last only up to April.

The early harvest from South Rift is likely to be poor this year due to the prolonged drought and the maize lethal necrosis disease.

Cross-border maize inflows from neighbouring countries have been minimal, largely because these countries have also been affected by the ongoing drought. Wholesale prices in most urban centres in the region are above Sh3,500 per 90-kg bag, and are relatively higher than the world price of Sh1,667.

The average wholesale maize prices are generally 27 per cent above the 5-year national average. It is unlikely that farmers are still holding large maize stocks. Maize flour price is for the first time since 2012 higher than wheat flour price. For example, the price of a 2kg packet of maize flour currently retail at Sh153 on average, compared to Sh120 for wheat flour on average.

From the foregoing, it was evident a long time ago that the country was staring at a looming maize shortage unless maize was imported to meet the deficit.

Whereas the government has moved to forestall the current high and escalating maize prices, more still needs to be done. The government recently removed maize import duty and VAT on bread and maize flour. While these measures are welcome, they may be a little too late given that it takes 45-60 days to deliver the imports.

Better surveillance and a faster response to warnings of a looming food shortage are needed to improve response and avoid situations of famine and starvation. A decision to import maize, when needed, must be made with good lead time.

Medium term responses will have to focus on increased production; building strategic food reserves; better extension services to improve productivity through enhanced farm management practices; subsidy programmes; water harvesting and small scale irrigation projects; better monitoring of food situation; better preparedness and response to food outlook reports; incorporating climate change in programmes and projects; and better understanding of existing food consumption patterns.

It is critical to evaluate interventions and programmes put in place in response to previous droughts and see what is working and what is not working. In the long term, the country should focus on research and development of drought tolerant crops and irrigation development in order to exploit the production potential of its vast ASAL lands.

Mr Karin is a Senior Research Assistant at Tegemeo Institute of Egerton University