Why Wamalwa might have a probability of winning the Nairobi gubernatorial seat

Eugene Wamalwa has been trending since Sunday, both on twitter and Facebook. The reason is obvious-the Nairobi gubernatorial seat. The kind of heat the declaration has created tells that he is likely to be a strong candidate.

His candidature has rattled both Jubilee and Cord camps. Margaret, Marende et al have not received much attention to their declaration as Eugene has. Yet he has not said it himself, perhaps because he still remains a Cabinet Secretary prohibited by provisions of the law.

If Eugene declares interest then he might have a 65% chance of winning-the 35 percent will be shared between Sonko and Kidero. But if Sonko is requested to retain his senate seat then the percentage may shoot to 70.

One main reason leads to this probability. That president Kenyatta's 2017 re-election has just been tied to Eugene's Nairobi candidature. One, Rift Valley will keenly be watching if Central Kenya can indeed support someone from outside the mountain. If Central Kenya remains selfish with Nairobi, then the Rift Valley vote is not guaranteed.

Remember, the promise of passing the seat in 2022 is the selling line for Jubilee in the Rift. Secondly, to get a reasonable percentage of the vote in Western Kenya, then besides Pan Paper, Mumias and other projects fully supporting Eugene to bag Nairobi would be taken positively in most quarters of Western Kenya.

This implies that it is in the best interest of President Kenyatta to ensure Eugene has the Jubilee ticket. It doesn't stop there; he must find a way of ensuring that all the central Kenya candidates (strong or weak) are not on the Nairobi gubernatorial ballot paper.