Kisii poll defeat sends Raila back to drawing board

By DENNIS ONYANGO

KENYA: For close to two decades, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has been the kingpin of Nyanza politics. He faced little challenge.

 The few politicians who tried to oppose him did so for a fleeting period. These are the likes of Senators James Orengo and Anyang’ Nyong’o. For some time, the duo went into political oblivion before the ‘king’ rescued them.

The punishment they received as a result of their perceived defiance to the son of the late doyen of opposition Jaramogi Odinga has made them toe the line and there are no indications their loyalty will waiver soon.

Former Foreign Affairs Minister Raphael Tuju also ‘rebelled’ for five years, but in 2007, he failed to recapture Rarieda seat on former President Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PNU), which was unpopular in the region.

The moneyed politician is currently in the cold with an uncertain political future.

Raila has ‘ruled’ Luo Nyanza like a lone lion in the jungle, and the vote in the last four General Election vindicated his unshakable clout in the region. The former Prime Minister received about 100 per cent votes in the March presidential election from Nyanza. He also influenced voting patterns for the parliamentary and civic seats.

So powerful was he that even the few dissenting voices were completely suppressed, thereby maintaining unity in the region.

However, Raila is currently experiencing myriad challenges in ODM and his Nyanza backyard, raising the question whether he is losing grip in his home turf.

Although he is still undoubtedly the most influential politician in the area and has indicated he would remain in active politics, his clout seems to be weakening.

Rival

 The fact that ODM has recently lost two successive mini polls in Kisii to rival parties is enough reason to worry Raila who has given indications he would make a fourth bid to become the country’s Head of State.

In Nyaribari Chache, Chris Bichage (ODM) failed to retain his seat that was clinched by Richard Tong’I (Ford People), eating into the opposition numbers in the National Assembly.

In Bomachoge –Borabu by-election held two weeks ago, TNA’s Joel Onyancha beat ODM‘s Peter Kimori despite spirited campaigns led by the three CORD principals in the area.

The mini polls were conducted following the High Court’s nullification of the 2013 parliamentary results in the constituency due to election malpractices.

Even in Luo Nyanza, the dominance of ODM seems to be under serious threat, a problem seen to have begun after the party’s disputed 2013 primaries that resulted in mass defections to other CORD-affiliated parties.

 It is not a secret that some of the leaders who quit the party have not yet forgiven Raila and the entire leadership of the party.

 “We left the party in pain and it is unfortunate our problems have not yet been resolved,” said Kisumu west MP Olago Aluoch.

Mr Aluoch (Ford Kenya), Muhoroni’s Otieno Koyoo( PDP) Awendo MP Jared Opiyo (Ford Kenya) and Alego Usonga legislator Omondi Mulwan (Wiper Democratic Movement) are  among the leaders who made it to Parliament after defecting from the Orange outfit.

The situation has led to internal rebellion spearheaded young legislators mainly drawn from south Nyanza region and their mature and experienced counterparts over the party leadership positions.

 The young turks wants old generation politicians to relinquish the reins of the party, accusing them of being behind the party woes.

Reconciling the warring factions within the party has been a major headache for Raila. 

Although his key allies have defended his unwavering support in the region, political analysts see a different Raila whose political clout is waning over time.

“Raila has to contend with the ‘new army’ that has come with new tricks to succeed him because the battle field and political strategies have changed. The voting population that is largely below the age of 35 are no longer excited about regional kingpins and leaders of the second liberations but how politicians package themselves,” says Dr Lukoye Atwoli, a Moi University don.

He warns that due to his age, Raila, 68, might become politically irrelevant if he fails to nurture other energetic leaders perceived as threats to his career to fly the flag of the region.

Key ODM allies have however maintained Raila still remains the force to reckon with in Nyanza politics.

MPs Gedion Ochanda (Bondo) and Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay County) believe his grip in the region is still intact.

There is also fear among key Raila allies that Dr Kidero who has been making forays in the region to raise funds for development has his eyes trained on something bigger and is seeking support of youthful MPs.