‘Small tribes’ fight to end tyranny of numbers

By OSCAR OBONYO

The recent appeal by Taita-Taveta County Senator, Dan Mwazo, to residents to take advantage of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s directive on free maternal healthcare to give birth in large numbers, has elicited mixed reactions. 

The notion behind Mr Mwazo’s call on Taita-Taveta women is political – “to enable the community produce a President in future”. By encouraging men “to marry more wives and make more babies”, the Senator hopes his people can amass enough votes in future elections to out muscle the big tribes at the ballot.

Tiaty MP Asman Abongotum Kamama, has previously shared this view. The politician, who represents minority Pokot community in Baringo County, appealed to his constituents ahead of the March 4 General Election to multiply their numbers to ward off political exclusion.   

That leaders have resorted to urging members of their communities to increase in population, at a time when policy makers globally are advocating birth control, is a bizarre development. Nonetheless, this is one of the weird options available for minority and marginalised communities seeking political relevance in a field dominated by the bigger tribes. 

To address such concerns, a movement sponsored by Kenyans for Justice and Development (Kejude) Trust has drafted a Bill with the aim of amending Article 138 of the Constitution. This was communicated to invited guests including politicians, at Nairobi’s Charter Hall.  

Referendum

The group, March 4th Movement (M4M), is mooting for the election of the President and the Deputy President directly by popular vote, on a county-by-county basis, as opposed to the current system, where both are elected directly nationally.

However, the group’s initiative is muddled in political confusion with some politicians attempting to hijack the process, yet others are misrepresenting facts of the initiative as they lobby for the idea. 

Prof Macharia Munene, who doesn’t have “a major problem” with the initiative, however faults the association of its proponents with former Prime Minister and Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) leader, Raila Odinga.

“It is so glaring open, what this scheme is about and whom it is meant to benefit,” claims Munene, who teaches History and International Relations at United States International University, Kenya.

Human rights crusader, Okiya Okoit Omtata and Eliud Owalo, who spearheaded Raila’s presidential campaign, are the group’s co-conveners. Their campaign has further been complicated by ongoing parallel moves by CORD-allied legislators to change the system of government from presidential to parliamentary and for a referendum to empower devolution.

Mr Omtata, who has previously spearheaded many crusades, maintains his campaign is not anybody else’s political project. Similarly, Mr Owalo observes he too has an independent life. A senior management consultant, who also runs his own Nairobi-based firm, Owalo says he became part of M4M family “upon being convinced it had a noble mission”.   

Besides Omtata and Owalo, M4M has a steering committee whose members include, Rehana Mohamed, lawyer Antony Oluoch, human rights activist, Wafula Buke, Fred Oduke and a host of civil society members.  

 “Eti sasa wanataka watu wachache wajifungie kwa chumba fulani wakunywe chai na nduma au njugu karanga, na kuamua hatma ya Kenya. Rais wa Kenya hawezi kuchaguliwa na watu mia mbili pekee (Now they are proposing that a few people lock themselves in a room to decide Kenya’s political fate over a cup of tea served with arrow roots or roast groundnuts. This country’s President cannot be elected by a mere two hundred people),” said Deputy President William Ruto in Meru County last weekend in apparent reaction to M4M’s vote tallying proposal.

 “Politicians, both in Government and Opposition, have totally muddied this affair, making it absolutely difficult for mwananchi to comprehend our mission. We are accordingly going to spend most of the time ahead, clearing the air on some of these distortions,” Omtata told The Standard On Sunday. 

The proposed amendments to the Constitution by the Kejude-sponsored group include introduction of presidential electoral points in each of the 47 counties and 290 constituencies and the scrapping of vote tallying at the national level in a presidential election.

“A total number of electoral points for electing the President shall be 337, representing 290 constituencies plus 47 counties. All the presidential electoral points in a county are given on a winner-take-all basis to the candidate who wins the presidential ballot, by direct popular vote,” states the proposed amendment.

This is in line with the practice in America, where Kenya has borrowed the pure presidential system, whereby a candidate who wins the popular vote in a given State carries the electoral vote of the entire State.  In Kenya’s case, if candidate “A” emerges winner in Nairobi County, he or she shall be awarded 18 electoral points – 17 for the 17 constituencies and an extra one for the county.

Populated counties

To be elected as President, therefore, one must win at least 169 presidential electoral points, being more than half of the 337 possible points. Political observers are in agreement the proposed system will enhance the profile of each county, within constitutional bounds.

It shall also force presidential candidates to pay attention to lightly populated counties, and in the spirit of reinforcing the role of devolution. And given the devolved nature of the State, candidates will be compelled to build a popular base that is geographically broad and diverse in voter interests as opposed to a scenario where President Uhuru Kenyatta, for instance, won the March polls, without setting foot in Western Kenya to campaign.

“The proposed system will also enhance the status of minority groups. By making the votes of a given county an all-or-nothing affair, minority groups can provide the critical edge that enables a candidate to win. This will create a ‘safety of numbers’ since it will be suicidal for political campaigners to focus on a few heavily populated counties while ignoring the rest of the country,” argues Omtata.