By VITALIS KIMUTAI

Politicians eyeing vacant Cabinet posts are crossing their fingers as President Kibaki and Premier Raila Odinga are said to be awaiting the outcome of the September 17 by-elections in Kangema, Kajiado North and Ndhiwa constituencies to decide on how fill the slots.

The Cabinet slots fell vacant following the demise of former Environment minister John Michuki (MP, Kangema), Internal Security minister George Saitoti (MP, Kajiado Northe) and his assistant minister Orwa Ojode (MP, Ndhiwa).

A delicate regional balancing act is also said to have caused the delay because the principals are working on a team that would also play a crucial role in ensuring a smooth transition after the next General Election.

Kibaki and Raila were, a few weeks ago, expected to announce a Cabinet reshuffle with indications they had agreed on a line up.

Sources privy to what is happening at State House and the PM’s office gave indications the principals may be awaiting the results of the by-elections before deciding on who to fill the slots.

No deal yet

“MPs who expected to reap from the reshuffle may have to wait a little bit longer before getting to know whether or not they are in the principals’ good books,” a source indicated.

Another source, however, claimed contrary to what has been carried in the media, Kibaki and Raila were yet to meet and make a decision on the matter.

“The principals have not met to discuss any matter relating to the much-publicised reshuffle. Perhaps, that will happen in the coming weeks,” the source, who is not authorised to speak to the media, said.

The reshuffle, when it finally comes, will lead to the appointment of substantive ministers for Internal Security, Industrialisation and that of Local Government.

Defence Minister Yusuf Hajji, who is acting in the Internal Security docket, is said to be a favourite candidate in the corridors of power for appointment in a substantive capacity.

“The principals have settled on Hajji for the Internal Security owing to his background as the longest serving Provincial Commissioner with solid understanding of internal security system,” said a source.

Since taking over on an acting capacity, Hajji has authorised one of the biggest shake up of the Provincial Administration and police chiefs following a series of attacks by the Al Shabaab militia.

State House operatives are said to be torn between Kilgoris MP Gideon Konchela, a retired army colonel and assistant minister Katoo ole Metito for the Defence docket.

Kibaki is said to favour Konchela for Defence as a result of his background in the military, being a former Cabinet minister and acting PNU chairman.

“Given Kenya is currently at war with Al Shabaab, it requires a minister who is well versed with military operations. War is not a trial and error matter, we need a person who is hands on,” Mr Tom Aosa, the national chairman of Community-Based Organisations board, who is also a former soldier, said.

Loyalty factor

But the problem is that despite being a Maasai, Konchela is from Narok County where another Cabinet minister William ole Ntimama comes from, thus working against regional balancing.

Metito, like the late Saitoti, comes from Kajiado County where the only other MP and Defence assistant minister, Maj-Gen(rtd) Joseph Nkaissery, comes from.

What is working against Nkaisery being appointed as Defence minister is the fact that he is from the ODM side of Government while the slot falls under the PNU arm.

“Kibaki will, definitely, pick a trusted ally for the Internal Security docket while Raila may not find a problem replacing Ojode as the position is ceremonial,” Dr Adams Oloo, a political analyst, said.

Reliable sources said Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey, who was recently cleared of abuse of office charges over importation of old vehicles, is likely to land at the Local Government docket, which fell vacant after the resignation of Musalia Mudavadi after shifting party allegiance from ODM to UDF following a spat with the PM over election and nomination rules.

Regional Development minister Fred Gumo is currently the acting Local Government minister, a position considered as among the most influential ones in the country.

Recently, Raila categorically said it was a matter of time before Kosgey is re-appointed to the Cabinet. This statement also dashes hopes of youthful MPs especially from Rift Valley, Western, Coast and Nairobi regions, who expected to benefit from the reshuffle had Kosgey not been let off the hook by the court.

A Moi University law lecturer and political analyst Titus Bitok says Kosgey may not return to the Industrialisation docket because of the bad blood that had developed between him and some of its senior officers.

He said the best Raila could do is to empower youthful MPs in the ODM Reloaded team by making them election co-ordinators in their own regions and not necessarily appointing them to the Cabinet.

“Appointing youthful MPs to the Cabinet would not necessarily be useful to the PM considering the remaining period before the next election. Perhaps, he should consider making them election co-ordinators in their respective backyards as their ideas resonates with youthful voters,” Bitok said.

Political analyst Kipchumba Murkomen says the expected return of Kosgey to the Cabinet would boost his quest to be Raila’s running mate in the March General Election.

Elevation to new posts

“The PM has been vocal that those facing court cases and holding public and party positions should step aside, but that worked against him because his own party chair had a case pending in court. Raila can now be free to keep hammering that point home,” Murkomen said.

MPs who are said to be among those being considered for elevation to the Cabinet include Dr Joyce Laboso (Sotik), Ababu Namwamba (Budalangi), Charles Keter (Belgut), Omondi Anyanga (Nyatike) and Polyns Ochieng (Nyakach).

Both Keter and Anyanga have been mentioned as top contenders for the Internal Security assistant minister slot.

Keter, an ally of Eldoret North MP William Ruto, who has shifted allegiance from ODM to URP has denied having been approached by the PM over the matter.

Balancing act

Assistant minister Magerer Langat was one of those said to be in the list of being considered for appointment to replace Kosgey in the Cabinet had the ODM chair not been cleared by the courts.

Housing assistant minister Margaret Wanjiru has also been mentioned as gearing up to replace Co-operatives Development minister Joe Nyagah as the PM seeks to consolidate his support in Nairobi and Central Kenya.

Namwamba is said to be one of those being touted to take over Mudavadi’s Cabinet post but would not necessarily inherit the Local Government ministry.

A number of assistant ministers are also said to be likely to face the sack in the delicate balancing act that Kibaki and Raila will have to make as the clock ticks towards elections.