On the 6th of November, this year, the Americans will go to the polls to elect a new president. Early the following morning, the whole world will know whom they will have elected.

Barring death or disability, that man will be either the incumbent, President Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, a former governor of the state of Massachusetts

Almost exactly four months later, we here in Kenya will also go to the polls to elect a new president. Under the new systems and procedures being set up by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, early the following morning, we also shall have known who will have been elected as the fourth President of Kenya, if there is to be no run-off.

On paper, these two events, occurring four months and thousands of miles and kilometers apart, appear independent and unrelated. That is as it should be. But is that the way it is going to be?

Could it turn out that the results of the American presidential elections in November could, to some extent, determine the final outcome of the Kenyan presidential elections?

And, if that eventuality was to become both a possibility and a probability, how should the major presidential candidates in this country be preparing to deal with it?

Statistically, there are only two possible outcomes in the looming Kenyan presidential sweepstakes. Since the latest opinion polls still show Raila Odinga as the most popular single candidate, the most likely outcomes are Raila and Another, whoever that other person might turn out to be. As we have just seen, in the American presidential election, there are also only two possible outcomes: Obama and Romney.

Let us suppose that, on November 7th, we wake up to find that Romney has won the American presidential elections. What would that executive outcome mean for our own presidential race? Would it matter to Romney and his closest Republican Party advisors, who wins the Kenyan presidential elections?

Obama’s father

Does Romney know where, on the map of Africa, Kenya actually lies? Does he know the difference between Kenya and Nairobi? Has he ever heard of a man called Raila Odinga or others called Uhuru Kenyatta or Musalia Mudavadi?

Hardly, I should think. If you grow up a Mormon in the American heartland, you don’t get to know such names. And no reporter will ask an American presidential candidate whether he knows the difference between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta. This is why I think President Romney would not care a hoot who wins the Kenyan presidential race.

But what if the Americans re-elect President Obama in November? Would the American and Kenyan presidential elections still remain independent and unrelated events occurring four months and thousands of kilometers apart?

Hardly. As we all know, President Obama’s father hailed from K’Ogelo village in Siaya County, only a few kilometers as the crow flies from Raila’s home in Bondo. Beyond that, Raila and Obama happen to know each other personally and have met, face to face, at least twice.

If Obama happens to be re-elected in November, would he have a personal, private interest in having Raila in the Kenyan State House?

We cannot answer that question for sure but politics, as we all know, is not just about ideologies, policies and programmes.

It is also about who you know, who your friends are, where they come from and whether or not they knew your mother or father.

On that basis, we can safely assume that President Obama would not only take a keener interest in the Kenyan presidential race but also that he would, on balance, prefer Raila Odinga in State House.

From there it follows that, if the Kenyan presidential poll results were in dispute, he could deftly wield American power and influence in such a manner that, if possible, the election would be swung in favour of the PM. Fact or fiction?

American power, taken in its totality, is so pervasive that, not only can it make or unmake presidents, it can also destroy whole national economies or military machines.

If one then accepts both the possibility and probability that a new Obama presidency could boost Raila’s presidential bid, how should Kenya’s major presidential candidates deal with such a reality?

For Raila, the gameplan is quite simple. Coast along carefully, appearing as the man to beat but knowing all the time that, if the chips come down, the most powerful man in the world might be playing from your side of the court.

make or break

For those who are trying to ensure Raila never gets to State House, the gameplan must be diametrically opposed. They must somehow unite and ensure they have such commanding voter numbers that the Raila is so overwhelmingly defeated in the first round that no second chance or excuse arises for Obama, or anybody else, to intervene.

To eliminate the possibility of any last minute American or foreign powerplay, they must plot to defeat Raila at the first ballot!

So, for Raila and ODM, President Obama’s victory this November could turn out to be a double-edged sword. It could make or break his last bid for the Kenyan presidency.

The writer is a lecturer and consultant in Nairobi.

dominicodipo@yahoo.co.uk