By Alex Ndegwa
Analysts are divided on what impact the outcome of the International Criminal Court's decision on the charges facing Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta would have on his political career.
If the ICC judges confirm the charges, observers say even though the law does not bar him from contesting the presidency, the damning excess baggage could significantly harm his candidature.
But if the charges are dropped, pundits suggest it would vindicate him and embolden his run to be president.
Coming at a time he is riding high on the political scene observers agree a decision by the ICC on the charges Uhuru faces could make or break his political career.
Political analyst Tom Namwamba argues the ICC case has further raised Uhuru’s political profile.
"The ICC case has solidified Uhuru’s political platform. If the charges against him are terminated, he stands a better platform for the 2012 General Election," Namwamba told The Standard on Wednesday.
He contends even if the charges were confirmed and Uhuru is deemed ineligible to contest, then he could opt to become a kingmaker.
"Either way Uhuru and Ruto already have their stars shining because if they were blocked from the elections, whomever they back stands a better chance of ascending to power," he adds.
"Moreover the case has solidified the union between the two communities. This surely will be cause for worry to their rivals, ODM," he says.
Kituo Cha Sheria executive director Priscilla Nyokabi says whether the charges are confirmed or dismissed is irrelevant because the damage has already been done.
"Even if the law doesn’t bar Uhuru from contesting elections if the charges are confirmed it is unlikely Kenyans would elect as their president someone with the ICC baggage like Sudan’s Omar Bashir," Nyokabi says.
Nyokabi adds in the event the charges were dropped Uhuru’s campaign team would still be distracted in doing damage control.
"The evidence and information that has come out of the proceedings is so damaging to presidential campaigns," Nyokabi added. She adds the trial is protracted, taking up to four years and may result in imprisonment.
Prof Makau Mutua, who teaches at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School, contends confirmation of the charges could shatter political careers.
"Political careers may either be terminated or rejuvenated," Mutua wrote in a recent opinion article, citing Uhuru and Ruto who have declared their candidatures for the presidency.
Mutua added: "They will be out of the race if charges against them are confirmed. But they could bounce back stronger if you (prosecutor) fail to convince the judges to bind them for trial."
