The Kenya Red Cross has warned that 46 of the country's 47 counties risk above-average rainfall in the coming months, with officials cautioning that weak drainage and blocked flood paths could turn the rains into a disaster.
"46 out of Kenya's 47 counties are at risk of receiving above-average rainfall. If the systems are not in place to manage it, flooding will occur," said Kenya Red Cross Emergency Operator Antony Muchiri, speaking on Spice FM on Tuesday.
The warning comes as Kenya Meteorological Department data points to an intensifying El Niño, with the department's late-August outlook forecasting above-average rainfall across more than 40 counties during the October-to-December short rains, including Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu and Nakuru.
Kenya's last major El Niño-driven floods, between late 2023 and mid-2024, killed at least 245 people, affected more than 78,000 households and displaced nearly 46,000 households, touching 42 of the country's 47 counties, according to a recent recap by the Nation.
A dam burst near Mai Mahiu in the Rift Valley alone killed more than 40 people in April 2024.
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Muchiri explained that heavy rain becomes a hazard once it meets existing vulnerabilities such as poor infrastructure and blocked waterways. Flooding occurs when the ground cannot absorb the volume of water received, forcing surface run-off, he noted, adding that the situation worsens when water's natural paths towards rivers and oceans are obstructed.
"Construction along flood paths will inevitably worsen flooding, while improper disposal of waste will block drainage systems and further increase the risk of flooding," he observed.
He added that siltation and erosion also contribute to flooding independent of human activity.
Muchiri said most flood paths in Kenya are already known and should guide infrastructure and settlement planning, but the country has tended to respond to disasters rather than prevent them.
He noted that preparations for the anticipated El Niño rains are already under way, even as gaps remain in the country's readiness.
"There is a lot happening behind the scenes in preparation for El Niño but with the systems we have in place, we are still likely to suffer significant loss of lives and extensive damage," he cautioned.
The Red Cross said measures under way include unclogging and expanding drainage systems, issuing early warnings, raising awareness in high-risk areas and preparing evacuation plans nationwide.
Muchiri cited more than 400 deaths recorded during the 2023-2024 heavy rains, explaining that while rainfall itself cannot be prevented, its impact can be reduced through planning and response.
He warned that ignoring evacuation advisories puts lives at risk, pointing to traditional knowledge of high-ground areas as a benchmark for evacuation during floods.
"Sometimes, it is also a matter of ego or reluctance to leave their homes. These are some of the major reasons why people will lose their lives during floods," he said.
Muchiri described flood preparedness as a shared responsibility spanning households, communities and government.
"We need all hands-on deck. It starts at the household level, then the community and ultimately the government. The buck stops with the government," he added.
He urged early stockpiling of shelter materials rather than waiting for displacement to occur, framing the choice starkly between preparing for survivors or preparing for casualties.