Why Ruto 2022 debate scares Rift Valley ‘Kikuyus’

There is disquiet in Deputy President William Ruto’s political turf in Rift Valley, following recent remarks by two ‘Mt Kenya’ politicians that his presidential bid will not get automatic support from Central Kenya in 2022.

Kiambu Governor William Kabogo fired the first salvo, when he stated that Mt Kenya voters will not automatically back DP Ruto in 2022 to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta, although there was a 2013 pre-election pact between the two Jubilee principals. He recanted his statement days later when he met the DP at a kiss-and-make-up rally.

Eyebrows were raised when barely two weeks later, little-known nominated Senator Paul Njoroge echoed similar sentiments. His utterance were greeted by condemnation from Central Kenya leaders and protests in his hometown of Naivasha, where his effigy was burnt. But even though the two leaders were widely criticised by their colleagues in Jubilee, there is concern that dishonouring the 2013 MOU may cause jitters in the Rift Valley and imperil the safety of the ‘Diaspora Kikuyu.’

Political analyst Dr Martin Oloo says that from past experience, whenever the Kalenjin and Kikuyu communities have voted differently, there has always been deadly clashes in Rift Valley.

“I am not saying that there will be violence in 2022, but if there will be any, it is the Kikuyu in the Rift Valley who will feel the heat,” he said.

Dr Oloo, a lecturer at the Kenya School of Law, also warned that it will be hard to enforce the pact between the two leaders once President Kenyatta completes his second term in 2022.

“The argument that President Kenyatta having benefited from Ruto’s backing will return the same favour is hypothetical. We can take Kenyatta’s word, but it must be known that once he ends his tenure, he will have no clout over the people of Central Kenya.

“The Kikuyu will have finished with him when he retires. They will be looking at their future. His word will have no weight anymore. It will be upon the people from his community to decide,” said Dr Oloo.

But Bramwel Matui, a senior lecturer at Moi University’s Department of Development Studies sharply differs with Dr Oloo. According to Matui who teaches Politics of Development, there should be no cause of alarm as members of the two communities have learnt from history and embraced a culture of political reciprocity.

“There is emerging political reciprocity among communities that had differences before. We have seen communities in cosmopolitan counties agree to share key political positions. This will definitely shape the discourse of whether Ruto will be supported by Mt Kenya in 2022,” he said.

Matui also points out that the DP has aligned himself with leaders from Central Kenya, where he has made inroads and presided over high-profile harambees. This, he says, will work in his favour.

“Diaspora Kikuyu in Rift Valley have an interest in a peaceful transition. They will definitely back Ruto’s bid because of their own interest, given their past experiences. Those trying to oppose his bid are merely angling themselves as regional kingpins after President Kenyatta exits the scene,” he said.

Cord leaders have in the past told the DP to stop dreaming that Central Kenya voters will stand with him in 2012. In a recent interview on a local TV station, Deputy Minority Leader and ODM stalwart Jakoyo Midiwo said history is replete with political treachery involving Central Kenya leaders.

“Ruto is not wise but he is not stupid. I am sure he is aware of what happened to MoUs between Central Kenya leaders and Jaramogi, Raila, Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka,” Jakoyo said.