Mombasa politics will shock many after the August 8.The turn of events in the recent past have shown that governor Joho, is gone down and resulted into voodoo tactics of pulling down opponents posters and billboards and accusations of intimidating the advertising firms.
Pundits have projected the governor will be beaten hands down, by his arch-rival Suleiman Shahbal.
Joho is banking on the ODM votes which alone will not make him governor for a second term. The NASA votes will be split in the middle as Kenyan politics is tribal. The tribal card will be used.
Upcountry population mostly From Luo Nyanza will divide their votes. Some will vote for him while others will vote for their son Awiti Bolo.
The Kamba Nation in Mombasa will not leave Sarai Hassan who is vying on Wiper ticket. This is evident by the number of aspirants who came out to vie on a wiper party in Changamwe constituency.
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The Mijikenda votes will be split too as both Shahbal running mate and Joho's running mate are from the Mijikenda communities.
Pundits also project Joho’s flop as the upcountry votes he depends on, most of these voters will travel upcountry thence they will not vote in Mombasa.
The Swahili voters most of whom don’t come out to vote, and on this Shahbal has more advantage than the Governor.
Mombasa gubernatorial race is too close to call. It will not be a roller coaster for Joho. Coupled with dismal performance in the county especially with small business traders, who are waiting to avenge at the ballot.
There are claims of open segregation of upcountry population by Joho’s administration and this is likely to work against him.
This is my personal opinion and views sort from independent analysts. You may agree or disagree with it.
