Like King Oedipus, G7 Alliance’s fate is sealed

Otuma Ongalo

In ancient Greek mythology, there are individuals whose destiny is determined long before birth and the more they attempt to run away from their fate, the more they fulfil its prophecy.

Sophocles’ Oedipus the King tragedy is one such case.

Oedipus’ father, Laius, visits King Pelops, but he ends up committing a taboo. Doom is cast over him and his descendants. Laius becomes king and learns from the oracle that he is doomed to perish by the hands of his own son. He orders Queen Jocasta to kill Oedipus but the child eventually finds himself in the court of childless King Polypus and Queen Merope.

He grows up to believe they are his biological parents. He later learns from the oracle that he is destined to kill his own father and sleep with his own mother. He flees to avoid the curse and in the process meets Laius, whom he kills, and Jocasta, whom he eventually sleeps with. The prophecy is fulfilled in an intricate plot of one of the greatest tragedies.

That is in far away and ancient Greece. In Kenya, there are some tales that neither need the prophecy of the oracle nor complex plot. One can always predict the destiny of major characters in political drama based on their history, body language, utterances, and even the futility of their mission.

The fate of G7 Alliance can be easily predicted without resorting to crystal balls. Despite the confidence exuded by its leaders that it is a veritable vehicle that will deliver them to the lawns of State House after the General Election, the odds are high.

It is not the external enemy that threatens their dreams. Danger lurks within their unbridled ambitions and I’m-greater-than-thou attitude. To me, the combination of Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa evokes the image of Kamukuywa’s testosterone-fired bulls locked in a tiny kraal with a cow in season.

They can pledge unity and common goal but when the great moment comes on deciding who mounts the throne, they will reduce the Kilkenny cats’ fight to a child play. Do you remember the tale of the two cats that fought and clawed each other so viciously until only their tails remained?

The G7 Alliance is bound to be doomed and this is why:

Just as he predicted ahead of the last presidential election that he would be in Government come what may, Kalonzo has already vowed he would be on the ballot in the next elections.

The message is simple and clear to his comrades: "You either make me the flag bearer or I will go for presidency alone." As the man who has already tasted the fruits of the vice- presidency, he will go for nothing less. The tragedy is that he commands less following compared with Ruto and Uhuru and won’t get G7 ticket on a silver platter.

Uhuru, on the other hand, believes he is Kibaki’s heir apparent despite his kinsman’s reluctance to endorse him.

And he remains the President’s favourite despite his silence. For a man who missed a high chance in 2002 following former President Moi’s endorsement and ‘sacrificed’ for Kibaki in 2007, the moment should be 2012 or never.

Ruto believes he is the de facto leader of the G7 Alliance, having been born after his rebellion against Prime Minister Raila Odinga, and whom he is spoiling for a showdown with. Coupled with the belief that he commands the voting pattern of vote-rich Rift Valley, he is raring to be the king and not kingmaker.

Eugene’s reputation of not sticking in political relationships is well documented. Although he is the novice among the four, he is the most ambitious. There is definitely no way the other three will allow him to be flag bearer or even running mate and will bolt once this becomes a reality.

The alliances’ obsession with bringing down Raila rather than laying out their vision and mission for the nation does not help their cause either.

The writer is Senior Editor, Production and Quality, at The Standard