The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, pitting Israel and the US against Iran, is a stark warning to Africa on the vulnerability of economies tied to fossil fuels.
This illegal act of aggression, waged by two reckless governments that care not about the bloodshed they cause or the instability they trigger, will have far-reaching political, security, and economic consequences across the globe. Under the United Nations Charter, the use of force by one state against another is strictly prohibited unless authorised by the UN Security Council or carried out in clear self-defence after an armed attack. That was clearly not the case here, which explains why legal experts have described the strikes by the US and Israel as “manifestly illegal” as they undercut the very norms that sustain international peace. The conflict has once again injected profound instability into global oil markets, with prices surging and supply fears rippling through the world economy. For Africa, these tremors are not distant rumblings; they expose a fundamental risk embedded by being tied to fossil fuels.
The conflict has disrupted oil shipments, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil transits each day. In the immediate aftermath, tanker traffic plummeted as shipping companies anchored vessels outside the strait and war-risk insurance premiums spiked. The oil price jumped by double-digit percentages, and analysts warn prices could head toward $100 per barrel if the turmoil persists. The irony is stark. A region thousands of miles away can so abruptly affect the cost of fuel, which African businesses and households depend on. This volatility translates into higher transport costs, inflation, and constrained fiscal space for governments already juggling debt, development goals, and energy access challenges.
Africa’s move away from fossil fuels has often been framed principally through the lens of climate urgency, and rightly so. Our continent is heating faster than the global average; drought, floods, and food insecurity are becoming graver threats ever. But the Middle East shock makes another argument equally compelling: relying on fossil fuels is a strategic and economic liability, one we must not shackle ourselves to. Every spike in oil prices hits African economies hard. Most Sub-Saharan countries import a significant portion of their fuel, making them highly sensitive to global price swings. Higher petroleum costs crowd out investment in health, education and infrastructure. Fossil fuel subsidies, already a heavy burden, become even more untenable during price surges. In countries such as Egypt and Angola, fuel subsidies have reached staggering levels, diverting billions from essential services each year. These subsidies not only drain public coffers but also lock nations into long-term dependency on volatile fossil fuel markets.
Even for oil producers like Gabon or Nigeria, the calculus is perilous. Heavy reliance on extractive exports ties national revenues to a commodity whose price is shaped by geopolitics far beyond African control. Nigeria’s oil wealth, for example, has been linked to insecurity in the Niger Delta, depriving local communities of development while exposing the national economy to cycles of boom-and-bust. By contrast, renewable energy and electrification, particularly solar, wind and geothermal, offer boundless potential for economic resilience. Africa sits atop some of the world’s richest renewable resources. With our windswept and sunbaked plains, the continent could generate abundant clean power far cheaper than fossil fuels over the long run.
Already, progress is visible. In 2025, Africa recorded a 54 per cent increase in solar PV capacity additions, with countries like South Africa, Egypt, Kenya and Ethiopia making significant strides in renewable deployment. Kenya, for instance, draws around 90 per cent of its electricity from clean sources and is expanding storage and geothermal capacity to support further growth.
The conflict in the Middle East underlines a fundamental truth: geopolitical risk in fossil fuel markets is perennial and unpredictable. It is not a matter of “if” but “when” another shock disrupts supply and sends prices spiralling. Africa must not anchor its future to such instability.
The writer is the director of Power Shift Africa
