Missing nut in President Uhuru’s Big Four agenda

Following my article on the Uhuru Big Four thinking and emergence of a possible Uhuru doctrine, Lt. General Njuki Mwaniki, retired Commandant of the National Defence College in Karen raised the question of whether there was a “grand strategy” arising out of Uhuru’s possible doctrine.

Although the study of the concept of “grand strategy”, except in a few elite universities and military colleges, is not common, it is critical to states that seek to protect and advance their perceived national interests.

Each does this by identifying and claiming its niche in the current geopolitical realignment. In such states, studying grand strategy is such a serious pre-occupation that some require new presidents to produce “strategy” documents, within specified period after taking office.

There is a proliferation of national defence colleges, in addition to regular military training colleges, and in Africa Kenya is at the forefront. The National Defence College (NDC) in Karen is the top regional policy training body for personnel dealing with securing national interests. Daudi Tonje created it at the turn of the 21st Century. The founding commandants were among the first African officer cadets in the 1960s who, over the decades, proved their mettle, and had risen to the top of Kenya’s military structure.

RATIONALE

NDC was designed to force critical thinking in times of crises so as to expel policy ignorance and to avoid knee jerk blunders. The participants are diverse and create lasting bonds that help to diffuse potential regional conflicts.

They come from Eastern, Central, Southern, Western, and Northern Africa. They are then exposed to leading Kenyan scholars like conflict theoretician Makumi Mwagiru and also influential practicing policy makers. Mwaniki was there both as a participant and later as commandant.

It all depends on the Uhuru vision thing, as expressed in his two statements on Pan-Africanism and the Big Four, to turn Kenya into a middle income state. Synchronizing the two, Mwaniki argues, is “grand strategy” whose success depends on a propelling synergy coordinated by “a wise statecraft guru.”

Few people qualify to be called “wise statecraft” gurus for helping to promote and safeguard the interests of the state in times of crises. In ancient times, the best known were Imhotep serving Dzoser in Egypt, Biblical Joseph son of Jacob serving the pharaoh, and Kautilya helping India’s Chadragupta Maurya. The Americans had John Quincy Adams, he of the Monroe Doctrine fame, and Henry A. Kissinger serving Richard Nixon.

In Kenya, self-effacing behind the scenes movers come close to playing the role of wise statecraft gurus. Despite the presence of competing prima donnas, each with access to the presidential ear, four Kenyan men stand out.

First was Mbiyu Koinange in the Jomo Kenyatta presidency. A Kenyatta in-law and founder of the highly political anti-colonial Githunguri Teachers College in the late 1930s, he was an informal teacher of politics to Africans in London in the 1950s before joining Kwame Nkuruma’s Africa office in independent Ghana.

POWERFUL AIDES

In the Daniel arap Moi presidency, it was Nicholas “Total Man” Biwott who rose above such advisors as Mark “Bwana Dawa” Too, and Ezekiel Bergentuny; Biwott understood governance.

While Mwai Kibaki had initial influential men in his team like Joe Wanjui, Stanley Murage, Francis Muthaura, it was the self-assured Nick Wanjohi who ended up trouble shooting for Kibaki even in retirement. Similarly, Uhuru is surrounded by buddies, advisors, and concerned family members. One man, however, appears to hover over the rest; Joseph Kinyua.

An efficient and dedicated system man, Kinyua commands the president’s confidence in handling bureaucratic challenges and so he remains the head of civil service. The question that comes up is one of whether Kinyua is Uhuru’s wise statecraft guru and whether he has the drive animus to synergize the twin vision of PanAfricanism and the Big Four.

The formulation of a “grand strategy” will make the vision generally acceptable and a reality. Since Kinyua can handle bureaucratic infighting, lethargy, and possible sabotage, Uhuru is probably looking for a person of immense energy, with appropriate intellectual acumen, one that is a certified believer in the sanctity of the Big Four, and one that is a policy bull dozer. Identifying such a Kenyan is one of the challenges that Uhuru continues to confront as he seeks a “grand strategy” to entrench his twin vision.