Surprising reason Why Ruto might lose 2017 elections

Jubilee’s celebrations on winning Kericho County’s senatorial seat was curiously muted in sharp contrast to the vigorous campaign that saw choppers, millions of shillings, music and I kid you not, satirical poems deployed. What had been envisaged as an easy win by the Deputy President after appointing Charles Keter, Kericho’s erstwhile Senator, as Cabinet Secretary turned out to be a rather close affair threatening the very position of William Samoei Ruto as Rift Valley’s premier leader.

So exactly what happened? Are Kericho’s residents just an ungrateful lot or is their disillusionment with the ruling coalition valid? Well, the main reason that got the people of this picturesque county so irate is the numerous unmet promises which still stand so barely a year to the next election. Ruto was at great pains to explain the apparent neglect of the region. He even asked for forgiveness and made even more promises of fulfilling his initial promises. Naturally, he earned a new nickname on the campaign trail popularized by KANU with many referring to him as   ‘Tumetenga’. Named so for his propensity of saying that the government had allocated millions to projects in the region, millions the residents of Kericho had never seen.

The fact that he had given several senior jobs to the region, among them, a Cabinet Secretary, Permanent Secretary and Parastatal head did not help either as one would expect. Instead, residents questioned why all these positions had gone to Cabinet Secretary Charles Keter’s relatives, and now even the Jubilee candidate turned out to be his nephew. Such rash nepotism only fueled their anger. KANU was quick to seize on these facts drawing massive crowds. In their brilliance, they also played up a clever issue that of the South Rift versus North Rift as the media will tell you. In actual fact, it is a matter of the Kipsigis, who occupy the South Rift feeling that their counterparts in the north have been favored in development projects.

To be clear, the Kalenjin is not a homogenous group, the term ‘Kalenjin’ is a fairly recent political connotation but that is another story. It is however noteworthy that the Kipsigis are numerous and make up about half of the entire Kalenjin population. You can see the devastating implication of losing their support. In popular Kenyan parlance, among the Kalenjin they in fact have the “tyranny of numbers”. KANU did lose but not without a strong showing, one that exposed the chink in Jubilee’s armor. A revelation other political parties have noticed and one that has no doubt, awakened their predatory senses. William Ruto is no longer a man at ease, next year he will face the same questions from Kericho.

A reinvigorated KANU is on the rise with strong allies. The Kalenjin are yet to feel at home in Jubilee’s new party and Gideon Moi, a man with a familiar name and a familiar party has a tempting proposition for the disenfranchised Kipsigis. He is threatening to spoil the party with a 2017 run for the top post. He is also not a man without means and should he manage to snag the support of at least one other major tribe, the Jubilee house crumbles. Put it simply, 2017 is William Ruto’s election to lose.