As the debate to chart a new development blueprint beyond Vision 2030 gathers pace, the country’s flagship economic plan is facing renewed scrutiny after falling well short of its central promise of delivering sustained double-digit economic growth.
An analysis of the blueprint’s key economic indicators shows that nearly two decades after its launch, Kenya has never achieved the targeted 10 per cent annual growth rate that was expected to transform it into a globally competitive, middle-income economy by 2030.
Instead, sluggish expansion in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors—the two pillars expected to drive that transformation—has consistently held back the economy.
The vision set the target of banking the gross domestic product (GDP) expansion on agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
However, the highest the country has achieved since then is 7.6 per cent in 2021, largely because the previous year, during the height of Covid-19 lockdowns, Kenya reported a negative deviation of 0.3 per cent.
The Vision 2030 document primes agriculture as the key sector to propel the economy to a 10 per cent growth rate, and consequently supporting the social development agenda such as job creation, foreign exchange and attracting investments.
“To meet the goals, the sector has to become more efficiency-driven, raising productivity per unit of input (especially of labour and capital) closer to those of Kenya’s external competitors,” the document states.
However, this sector has been struggling to expand beyond five per cent, despite its significant contribution to GDP (20.8 per cent last year).
One strategy in growing the sector, as captured in the vision, is removing the bottlenecks on access to fertiliser. This appears to have been partly achieved through President William Ruto's provision of fertiliser subsidy.
Streamline supply
“The purchasing and supply chain improvement in the market for fertiliser through reliable bulk procurement that is transparent and efficient with the involvement of the private sector is still required to streamline supply and distribution. This will address issues of access and affordability of fertiliser,” reads the Sector Plan for Agriculture prepared by then Devolution CS Anne Waiguru and her Agriculture counterpart Felix Koskei, under Vision 2030 second Medium Term Plan (MTP II).
The intention of growing the economy by double digits, the Vision 2030 document states, is to transform the country into a middle-income nation. To some extent, according to Vision 2030 Delivery Secretariat scorecard for 2024/2025, this has been achieved.
The score card notes that the economy strengthened in 2024, where GDP rose to Sh16.22 trillion, up 7.35 per cent from 2023, while GDP per capita rose to Sh309,460. “This is a six per cent rise from 2023, reflecting real gains in incomes and living standards.”
In 2007, when the document was drafted, GDP per capita was Sh48,870.
A relatable goal under this push for a middle-income economy in the vision is poverty reduction. The document speaks of equity and poverty elimination to the tiniest proportion of the total population. “Kenya will aim at a society that guarantees equality of opportunity in accessing public services and providing income-generating activities as widely as possible. That will be achieved by placing the citizens at a level of income sufficient to cater for basic requirements of a healthy, productive life.”
Due to the prevailing economic conditions, however, there is fear that poverty levels could increase. The World Bank in its latest Kenya Economic Update 2026 cites a rise in transport costs courtesy of fuel prices and food inflation as some of the reasons.
“Microsimulation estimates suggest the poverty rate could increase between two and 4.5 percentage points in 2026, equivalent to an additional one million to 2.4 million Kenyans falling below the poverty line,” it says.
World Bank measures poverty levels using the Sh390 ($3) expenditure per person per day. It means if someone spends less than this amount a day, they are considered poor.
However, the World Bank report documents that poverty levels are estimated to have decreased modestly between 2022 and 2025 from a national average of 39.8 per cent in 2022 to 37.5 per cent in 2025.
It reclassified Kenya as a lower-middle-income country in 2015, when the government rebased its economy from 2001 metrics to 2009. This made the economy grow by 25 per cent.
The prosperity dream
Before then, Kenya was a low-income economy.
Former Board Chair Vision 2030 Secretariat Sakwa Bunyasi has been on record detailing the Covid pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, drought, and flight capital at the height or higher rates offered in US markets, as some of the headwinds the plan encountered. He described them as small blips in the journey to achieving the goal. “There is still a lot to be done, and not all can be done by 2030. By 2030, we might not have become a prosperous nation, but we are a nation seeking prosperity.”
During an interview with Standard Group’s Spice FM, he mentioned infrastructure, particularly road construction, and the blue economy as some of the areas where progress has been realised.
