The battle between the two protagonists – Jubilee’s Uhuru Kenyatta and NASA’s Raila Odinga – has been captured in opinion polls in the last two election cycles.
At the start of October 2012, pollsters narrowed down the presidential duel to between Raila and Uhuru.
IPSOS Synovate projected that Raila would beat Uhuru if elections were held on that particular day, but fail to garner the 50 per cent plus one required to secure State House.
In the projected runoff, however, Raila at a 36 per cent popularity would lose to Uhuru whose popularity polled at 30 per cent. Raila would garner 42 per cent of the vote compared to Uhuru’s 48 per cent.
In November the same year, pollsters still projected a Raila presidency, it did not matter whether Kalonzo Musyoka or Musalia Mudavadi would be his running mate. It was a sure win.
For Uhuru Kenyatta to capture State House, the survey by Infotrack imagined the possibility only if he liaised with then Eldoret North MP William Ruto.
A Raila/Kalonzo ticket led the polls at 52 per cent with an Uhuru/Ruto ticket trailing by a four per cent margin at 48 per cent. The poll still showed the same margin percentage even if Raila joined forces with Musalia Mudavadi or with William Ruto.
A month later, IPSOS Synovate’s findings still forecast a Raila win, announcing that his popularity stood at 34 per cent to Uhuru’s 27 per cent.
After the first presidential debate in February 12, 2013 tables had turned. Uhuru was leading by a seven per cent margin to Raila’s 33 per cent, according to a poll conducted by IPSOS Synovate.
Less than a week later three pollsters projected a neck and neck battle between Raila and Uhuru. This was nearly two weeks to the elections. At the actual polls, Uhuru slightly beat Raila to clinch the presidency.
In March 2016, Infotrack predicted that Uhuru would garner 44.5 per cent with Raila second at 27.8 per cent. This would trigger a run-off.
In February this year, IPSOS Synovate ranked Uhuru as the most preferred presidential candidate at 47 per cent against Raila’s 30 per cent.
It remains to be seen whether the pollsters will get it right after the General Election.
