By Wainaina Ndung’u

NAIROBI; KENYA: Just before Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi joined the TNA/URP coalition, panic had gripped many in Central region that their preferred coalition was overshadowed by the alliance led by Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

But within hours of the announcement that Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North William Ruto signed a deal with Mr Mudavadi, a sense of calm returned in Central and Mt Kenya regions with excitement that this coalition might after all be the one to beat in the General Election.

The media have been awash with news of how the two International Criminal Court (ICC) suspects worked hard to rope in Mudavadi into their corner ending what appeared to be his isolation by the two centres of power angling to succeed President Kibaki in about 10 weeks ‘time.

Tactical move

But sources inside the Uhuru camp say Mr Mudavadi was never isolated in the real sense and what was just happening was a tactical move to gauge the “mistaken” reaction of the rival Cord Alliance.

Coming only a week after Mr Mudavadi was in a four-day tour of Mt Kenya region, the announcement of the alliance meshes well with the message the DPM sent across the region.

During the visit, Mr Mudavadi reminded voters he was still a safe bet should they opt for an outsider.

The choice of having Mr Mudavadi as a possible candidate is seen as a safe balancing act in the region especiallyif hurdles are placed against regional favourite Uhuru.

Like any other crafty politician presaiming for the region’s vote, Mr Mudavadi was not expected to speak about the ICC during his visit in which he was flanked by regional pointsmen MPs Ndiritu Muriithi (Laikipia West) and Jeremiah Kioni (Ndaragwa).

Also flanking Mr Mudavadi was Rev David Githii, the retired moderator of the Presbyterian Church of East Africa (PCEA) who is going for the Kiambu Governor’s seat on a UDF ticket and several parliamentary aspirants from the region.

Winning alliance Mr Mudavadi’s visit took him to Kirinyaga where he joined Finance Minister Njeru Githae and his brother- in-law and Royal Media Services chairman Samuel Macharia for a church opening ceremony in Baricho, Ndia constituency.

Here, Mr Githae told the DPM that he should quickly work out a winning alliance with Uhuru saying the two, as close friends, were giving him a hard time in making his political choice.

According to an influential insider in the Uhuru camp, the coalition is targeting at least 10 million votes in its strongholds in Central and Mt Kenya including Embu and Meru regions, the Kikuyu diaspora counties of Laikipia and Nakuru, Kalenjin

Rift Valley, Western Kenya and its diaspora as well as Nairobi. “This, we believe will be sufficient numbers for an electoral victory in the first round as alluded to by Mr Mudavadi during the unveiling of the alliance,” says the TNA insider.

The alliance also believes it can guarantee to achieve a constitutional threshold of 25 percent in 11 counties including Nairobi in Uhuru’s stronghold, eight in Ruto’s stronghold including Trans Nzoia and West Pokot and four in Mudavadi’s Western strongholds.

“That makes a total of 23 guaranteed counties even before you add friendly areas and home regions of some of our key leaders,” says the insider.

Tribal acrimony

It is notable that Mr Mudavadi told Mt Kenya voters that they should go for “level headed” leaders who are not out to settle historical grudges and scores possibly worsening tribal acrimony in the country.

He also harped on the promise that he will “serve” rather than “rule” the country.

According to Mr Mudavadi, he represented the best option for stability in the country seeing as that acrimony between the leading presidential contenders has already sowed the seeds of future political acrimony should any of the antagonists be elected president.

Mr Mudavadi was obviously alluding to the political enmity between Prime Minister Raila Odinga on one hand and the ICC suspects who are now his new allies.

Ready to work

The Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) said in Embu on his last day of the tour that he does not have enmity with anyone and neither holds grudges against anyone adding that is ready to work with right-minded persons to steer development in the country.

Throughout the tour, Mr Mudavadi and his allies took several stabs at Mr Odinga while steering clear of the ICC troubles.

Speaking at the Keruguoya church function earlier, the DPM said all Kenyans must learn to accept the law and back whoever is declared the winner instead of creating violence after being defeated.

“A democratic win by whichever candidate will be a win for the whole country. Those who lose must concede defeat and support the winners for the country to move forward,” said Mr Mudavadi.

The UDF leader promised to take over the foundation left behind by President Kibaki and move the country to greater prosperity in all sectors of the economy. He also promised pay rises for the police saying one Kenyan police officer looked after 1,000 people while the recommended international ratio was one officer for every 400 people.

Mr Mudavadi also promised to kick start the region’s economy if elected president. He wants more industries in Mt Kenya, the fencing of the Mt Kenya forest to minimise human-wildlife conflict and financing of a Sh8 billion irrigation and domestic water supply project for the semi arid Kieni area in Nyeri County.

Some of Mr Mudavadi’s point men in the region admit he cannot make much mileage if Mr Kenyatta is running and notably even most of the wananchi who met him during this tour urged him to conclude alliance talks with Uhuru.

Non-starter

Influential regional leaders such as the chairman of Central Kenya Parliamentary Group Ephraim Maina say Mudavadi is a relatively acceptable presidential candidate across the region but a non-starter when Uhuru is running.

An upbeat Mr Maina says the alliance between the three has “win ability” because of its diversity and solid home support for the principals.

But in an earlier interview, the Laikipia West MP who is also an assistant Industrialization minister and the nephew of President Kibaki said UDF did not wish to be seen as hunting for tribal votes.

Asked how many parliamentary seats the UDF is targeting in the region, Muriithi and nominated MP George Nyamweya were evasive in October during a preparatory visit for the Mudavadi visit.

Said Mr Muriithi: “Why do we make ourselves hostage to this tribal myth when we know what we need to do?”

During his visit in Nyeri, Mr Mudavadi repeatedly urged Kenyans to refresh their minds that Kenya is only weeks to a new president and Government.

Far off

“When you say the elections are next year, it seems very far or. So I would rather you said the elections are 14 weeks away,” said the soft spoken Sabatia MP who has been a cabinet minister for literally all his parliamentary career since he inherited his father, Moses Substone Mudamba Mudavadi’s parliamentary career in the early 1990s.

Respected though he is, the UDF leader has few notable backers from this region. Muriithi, despite having the ear of his uncle, is considered a lightweight even in Laikipia West.

He is gunning for the Laikipia governor’s seat against Grand National Union leader Mwangi Kiunjuri and two other businessmen keen on TNA ticket.

Kioni also faces TNA trouble in his Ndaragwa constituency and might be lucky to retain it. Dr Githii is an outsider as far as the race for the Kiambu governor’s position is concerned.