By CYRUS OMBATI

Majority of Kenyans would vote for Prime Minister Raila Odinga as their next president if elections were held today, a new opinion poll has said.

And majority of those polled, 69 per cent approved the International Criminal Court to investigate those allegedly responsible for the 2007/2008 post-poll violence and 82 per cent believe The Hague-based court adheres to the rule of law.

A survey conducted by Gallup World Poll shows the PM leading with 28.6 per cent of the eligible voters followed by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta who managed 21.5 per cent, while Eldoret North MP William Ruto had 14.5 per cent.

 Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka had 9.9 per cent, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi 7.3 per cent, and Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua five per cent.

Among the registered voters, Odinga garnered 27.5 per cent, Uhuru had 24.2 per cent, Ruto 14 per cent, Kalonzo 10.4 per cent, Mudavadi 7.4 per cent, Karua 4.9 per cent, while 6.5 are not sure on who to vote for.

The survey was conducted between July 26 and August 17. It targeted 2,400 respondents across the country aged 18 years and above.

The survey used face-to-face method of data collection.

Gallup Regional Research Director Bob Tortora said their study was the most credible as compared to the local ones and cited the face-to-face mode of data collection as the parameter to gauge the credibility.

 

Reliable findings

“We do not use telephone in collecting data and that makes our findings the most reliable and credible. Our research shows up to 20 per cent of the registered voters do not have mobile phones,” he said.

Findings released by Ipsos Synovate early in the week projected the PM maintaining his lead with 36 per cent of those polled, saying they would vote for him.

Uhuru came second with 30 per cent, Ruto six per cent, Musyoka five per cent, Mudavadi seven per cent, while Karua had three per cent.

The poll comes at a time there is political realignment, with some politicians shifting bases ahead of the March 4 General Election.

It was conducted to gauge attitude towards elections, judicial system, and security. The East Africa Index sponsored the opinion survey.

On Friday, Tortora said a run-off was evident if all the dynamics remained the same, but his research did not establish who would win between the first and the second contenders of the first round of the outcomes.

The study showed the PM has a significant support across all age groups and gender.

It established 30.2 per cent of those aged between 18 and 21 would vote for Odinga, 16.4 for Kenyatta, 16.6 for Ruto, while 30.4 per cent of those aged between 22 and 29 would vote for the PM, 22.8 per cent for Uhuru, and 10.5 per cent for Ruto.

Of those between 30 and 45, 28.3 per cent would vote for Odinga, 24.7 per cent for Uhuru, and 15.6 per cent for Ruto, while 25.8 per cent of those aged 46 and above would vote for Odinga, 18.9 for Uhuru, and 16.2 for Ruto.

The study indicated 30.7 per cent of male would vote for Odinga, 20.7 per cent for Uhuru, and 15.2 per cent for Ruto, while 26.6 per cent of female eligible voters would vote for the PM, 22.2 for Uhuru, and 13.8 for Ruto.

“But the study shows there is a significant number of voters who are still undecided on who they would vote for if the election were held today,” said Tortora.

According to the study, 95 per cent of eligible voters plan to vote in the next presidential election, while 74 per cent said they are registered to vote, and 34 per cent are closely following information on elections.

Of the 26 per cent of Kenyans who are not registered to vote, 60 per cent plan to register, but 21 per cent say they do not have documentation for the exercise.

And of the registered ones, 33 per cent say they do not have proper documents. Half of Kenyans have confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, while seven per cent do not trust the commission.