Even as PNU leaders put on bold faces following the death of party chairman, George Saitoti, the future of the outfit remains shaky.

Political observers concur that Saitoti was the glue that sustained PNU in turbulent political waters.

“PNU has no future because the late Saitoti was the only factor holding it together as his presidential vehicle. With his death, members are likely to scatter to other parties,” says lawyer Martin Oloo, a political analyst and lecturer at the Kenya School of Law.

Head of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of Nairobi, Adams Oloo, says political partiesexist because a certain leader is in it and when such a leader ceases to be there or withdraws, most of them become shells.

“Ford-Asili died when Kenneth Matiba withdrew from it. Ford-People is a shell after the retirement of Simeon Nyachae. DP is not strong enough since President Kibaki kept off its affairs. PNU may suffer similar fate given Saitoti is no longer there for it,” added Adams.

There are fears PNU, which was President Kibaki’s re-election vehicle in 2007 could weaken as was his first election vehicle in 2002, Narc. From a strong coalition that swept Kanu out of power after close to four decades, Narc is a pale shadow of its former self with less than five MPs in the Tenth Parliament.

But PNU national organising secretary Maina Kamanda, maintains the party has a promising future.

Committed to MoU

Kamanda says the party is still committed to the memorandum of understanding (MoU)  between Saitoti, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. They agreed to pick one of them  as the flag-bearer.

Kalonzo alluded to the MoU during the burial of Saitoti.

“PNU will soon call a management committee meeting to discuss the way forward, especially on the matter of PNU working with Uhuru and Kalonzo,” Kamanda told The Standard On Sunday, adding that this will be done after the period of mourning is over.

Kamanda further said PNU secretary general Amos Kimunya was expected to call for the meeting. However, questions abound on what happens if for example PNU is still committed to the MoU, but Uhuru with his The National Alliance (TNA) has no interest or Kalonzo decides to advance his presidential bid   independently through the Wiper Democratic Movement.

According to Kamanda, the party is not in a leadership vacuum following the death of its chairman and presidential aspirant, and he argues there is still Kimunya, first vice chairman, Noah Wekesa and Vice-chairman Jimmy Angwenyi and the party’s director of elections Gideon Konchellah among others.

“There will be no vacuum, there is a strong team. Even some officials who have not been active have began being active. Once the meeting is called, we will be able to address all the issues about unity with other parties and the presidential candidate,” Kamanda said.

However, there are those who feel Kimunya has no political force to advance PNU interests in Central Kenya given the strong Uhuru influence in the region, and equally,  Wekesa lacks the same ability to push party interests in Western Province where key parties include UDF, New Ford-Kenya and Ford-Kenya.

Wekesa was elected Kwanza MP on a Ford-Kenya ticket, when the party was in the PNU coalition in 2007 General Election.

“Most likely PNU leaders from Central are likely to endear themselves to Uhuru while others may also have to endear themselves to other key political players depending on their influence in local politics,” added Adams.

Pick candidate

Alliance Party of Kenya (APK) Executive Secretary Yusuf Abubakar said Saitoti was one of the principles in the MoU signed with Kalonzo and Uhuru.

“APK was preparing for talks to formalise the mode in which to get a single presidential candidate. The strategy was that Saitoti, Kalonzo and Uhuru come under one party,” Mr Abubakar said.

If efforts to sustain the MoU fail, then PNU could head the same way Narc did, weakening in terms of parliamentary representation after the 2007 General Election compared to its strength in 2002.

“Narc was once a strong force in Parliament, but it has since weakened to a near shell of its former self. PNU could also go the same way unless miracles happen to turn it around following the death of Saitoti,” said Maseno University lecturer Martin Mulwale.

Meanwhile, Saitoti died just when he was about to discuss modalities on how to elect one presidential candidate within the APK with Uhuru and Kalonzo. 

According to APK national co-ordinator and Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi, the three were bound by the agreement, which they signed on October 1, 2010, at the Norfolk Hotel in Nairobi.

Mr Kiraitu last month displayed a copy of the agreement at APK National Delegates Council meeting at the Bomas of Kenya, Nairobi. The three leaders resolved to transform PNU coalition to PNU Alliance, which has now changed its name to APK.

“I was leading the committee to organise the formation of the alliance. We did our work and formed the alliance as instructed by the three leaders,” Kiraitu said adding that David Ngugi signed the document on behalf of the small parties within the PNU coalition.

To fast track the pact between the three, APK formed the National Governing Council (NGC), which was given the mandate to pick one presidential candidate among the three.

The NGC comprises of four delegates from the 47 counties under APK national party officials and was mandated to choose between Uhuru, Kalonzo, and Saitoti.

Mr Kamanda told The Standard On Sunday that PNU was still committed to the pact despite the death of its presidential aspirant.