By STEPHEN MAKABILA

The increase in the number of undecided voters ahead of the coming elections has raised questions of whether the voting public is becoming cautious or fatigued by unceasing politicking.

Strategic Research and Communication’s latest opinion poll released last Wednesday shows undecided voters increased by 9.1 per cent compared to two months ago.

The research firm’s Chief Executive Caesar Handa attributed the increase partly to uncertainty of cases against some of the presidential aspirants before the International Criminal Court.

ICC trials
Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto are the two presidential aspirants facing trial over alleged crimes against humanity committed during post-election violence.

While Uhuru has much political influence in Central Kenya, Ruto is equally a political force in Rift Valley Province.

Chairman of the Centre for Multiparty Democracy Justin Muturi, while agreeing with Handa that the ICC question could be a reason for voter indecision, says the huge number of presidential hopefuls makes many Kenyans adopt a wait and see approach.

“The number of those nursing presidential ambitions is too high. The public seem to be confused on why every Tom, Dick and Harry wants to become President and this may partly explain why there is a growing number of undecided voters,” says Muturi.

He says a lot of political realignments was also confusing voters, and some were waiting to identify a winning alliance ahead of the election.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s campaign lobby, Friends of Raila (Fora) 2012 Secretary General Eliud Owalo argues the high percentage of undecided votes based on recent opinion polls is informed by the fact that issues that will define the forthcoming General Election are yet to be defined in the minds of many.

“Within the next two months, Kenyans will witness the emergence of two distinct camps that will face off in the polls. They will be the pro-change forces who will guarantee successful implementation of the new Constitution against the forces of impunity who are agents of status quo,” said Owalo.

Owalo says undecided voters will definitely identify with the former and this could tilt the scales in favour of Raila, guaranteeing him a clear win in the first round of voting by about 60 per cent of the total presidential votes.

“The forthcoming polls will be issue-based. It will render tribal political arithmetic irrelevant, as happened in the year 2002,” added Owalo.

Raila has for the last four years topped opinion polls as the most preferred presidential candidate, with Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta having a hold on the second spot.

Among other presidential aspirants are Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, ministers George Saitoti, Eugene Wamalwa, Moses Wetangula, Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi and MPs Ruto and Martha Karua.

Party manifesto
Maseno University lecturer Martin Mulwale says most voters are likely to take a stand once presidential aspirants roll out their party manifesto.

“We are yet to see philosophies of most of those nursing presidential ambitions. Kenya voters are informed and most of them, especially the professionals, are waiting to see their manifesto to decide who means well for this country,” Dr Mulwale.

Kenya National Union of Teachers chairman Wilson Sossion says teachers would only rally behind a presidential candidate whose manifesto takes care of the interests of teachers and the education sector.

Federal Party of Kenya Secretary General Kizito Temba says pollsters should give better reasons for the increase in undecided voters, other than the ICC issue.

But communication expert Priscilla Njeri says most voters are likely to decide once IEBC and other non-state actors carry out civic education. “It is only an informed public that can make informed decisions on who has the right presidential credentials,” Njeri said.