By JUMA KWAYERA
A fierce battle for ODM presidential nomination is quietly taking shape between Prime Minister Rail Odinga and his deputy Musalia Mudavadi, raising concerns whether the party will hold together.
After nearly four years of turbulence and fire fighting during which some MPs and civic leaders from
ODM members during grassroots elections in Nakuru. [PHOTO: FILE/STANDARD] |
For either ODM presidential aspirant, the nomination is expected to be tough, although it presents an opportunity to build a long-term strategy. The two are billed as the only ones with the credential to implement the new Constitution.
Voting blocs
Be that as it may, another school of thought has it that the tussle between two ODM leaders is ‘friendly fire’ to wage a two-pronged assault on key voting blocs to lock out ODM rivals from regions they enjoy a huge following.
The rivalry, party insiders say, will in turn be complementary: whatever attributes one lacks, the other has.
And the inescapable truth is: for Raila and Mudavadi, the next presidential election provides them with the only chance to entertain hopes of ever governing the country.
The nomination is a search for continued political relevance. It therefore comes as no surprise that the two, who also battled it out in 2007 for party nomination, are hyping their rivalry and camaraderie in a demonstration of ‘team of rivals’.
Responding to questions about how the PM plans to handle his accusers in the countdown to the General Election, his Director to Communication Dennis Onyango says: "Throughout the four years, the PM avoided engaging in a shouting match with his accusers. He will seek to clarify issues this year. But he is also not ruling out working with his critics (including Eldoret North MP William Ruto). Even in 2007, the two were seen to be taking divergent paths. Their convergence came when it was least expected."
It is generally agreed the nomination has attracted interest from other parties that have tried to work out a formula to stop the Orange party from wresting power from rivals that coalesce around President Kibaki.
The PM’s opponent are currently in overdrive, plotting how to stop his march to State House. One of the strategies is to drive a wedge between him and his deputy.
Says Onyango: "The plan to force a run-off does not worry the PM. He believes a number of these leaders are following an old script that may not find favour with Kenyans. The PM will continue mobilising support on a national stage, focusing on issues that matter to Kenyans nationally. That does not mean he will be ignoring the concerns of regions, ethnic groups and minorities. He believes all these issues can be addressed on a national platform by pushing for implementation of the Constitution and devolution clauses in particular. He has stated he is not taking his opponents for granted, but he remains confident that if he is the ODM flag bearer, he will win the race in the first round."
Information Assistant Minister George Khaniri acknowledges interest in party elections is massive.
"When you look at party structures in other political parties, ODM is the only party that has remained intact in spite of the recent challenges. We are the only party that carried out genuine presidential nomination in 2007. We ready to repeat the same. The issue of the PM being challenged by his deputy should be understood as intended to entrench competition and democracy, not grandstanding," says Khaniri, the MP for Hamisi.
He acknowledges though that rival parties are waiting to benefit from a falling out.
Separate ways
"ODM competitors are using every trick to weaken the party. We cannot rule out schemers who would be happy to see Raila and Mudavadi go separate ways. So far the relationship between them has been cordial, although there was a period when supporters of the two were suspicious of each other," the Assistant minister says. The only other party in Kenya’s short multiparty history to have gone through competitive nominations was Ford-Asili in 1992 when former Butere MP Martin Shikuku locked horns with party chairman Kenneth Matiba. Although Shikuku lost, he turned over his support to Matiba who came second to President Moi in the first multi-party elections.
In Kenya, political parties traditionally pick candidates in caucuses in which outcomes are predetermined.
In Kanu, PNU Alliance, Narc-Kenya, Safina, Wiper Democratic Movement among others, presidential candidates are foregone conclusion, as they face no serious internal competition.
Although Raila is seen as the de facto, says Khaniri, the party wants to put transfer of power to test without upsetting party structures.
"The party wants to give Mudavadi a chance to market his credentials. He stands a chance to be the presidential candidate. All he needs to do is to go out and solicit support from members. He has been accused of being laidback and this is the impression he needs to banish. He appeals to all the communities in the country," says the assistant minister.
Raila and Mudavadi head for nomination in contrasting styles. The onus, however, will be on the latter to prove his mettle. There is already talk of a major upset in the party in the offing, but doubts persist in equal measure whether the DPM has enough ammo to dislodge Raila from the top perch.
"Mudavadi goes into the nomination armed with the experience of running Government being the longest serving minister in ODM. He knows how a government is run. He also comes from the second largest ethnic group in the country, which could give him a head start if well mobilised to register and vote," adds Khaniri.
