By Standard Team

Behind the smokescreen of raging political war over uncontrolled human settlement in Mau Forest Complex and its unplanned exploitation the hand of catastrophe beckons.

Beneath the veneer of political cat-and-mouse games and the faÁade of drama it promises Kenyans, lies a bitter pill — it is a matter of life and death.

That is why Prime minister’s Task Force on Mau wants its management changed from forest perspective to national asset – complete with an independent authority to manage it.

Over the last four years Kenyans have leafed through chapters of this ‘book’ piercing together unending hilarity on planned removal of human

settlements in Mau Forests Complex — and today all are agreed it must be emptied of human settlement. The problem remains how and when?

Rift Valley MPs, in a memorandum to Prime minister Raila Odinga, whose Task Force has recommended that human settlements be cleared three months from the time its report is adopted by Cabinet, want compensation for would-be-evictees and humane

removal.

They have also asked for a scientific audit of Mau’s contribution to balance of life and nature in Kenya

and the region, and the demarcation of the hotspots that pose the gravest danger to the environment, especially water sources. They are also opposed

to proposed limitation of compensationto those owning 5 acres and below — something they dismissed as unlawful.

But they also have another fear — they do not trust the Government they are now part of that evicted their ‘people’ but in campaign fiesta asked

them to go back and rebuild their flattened homes.

As they trooped back to the burnt bushes straddled by flattened homes and schools, those calling the shots in President Kibaki’s first term hoped

they would reciprocate by voting the incumbent back to the highest position in the land.

Political links

Today, they say they see a hidden interest other than Mau conservation — and that is why Agriculture Minister William Ruto this weekend warned he would severe political links with Raila if the removals would again be violent, and there would be no compensationin the end.

Several ministers have stood their ground the settlements must be cleared and Mau secured, replanted and protected.

In literal terms, what is playing out is a tug-of-war and the oil running the engine of politics, some argue, is the promise of a basketful of votes in 2012

succession game.

Caught in the web of the political tussle are the over 4 million people who according to research, occupy

578 locations in Kenya and others in Northern Tanzania who drink and feed from Mau’s water fountain.

Above the din in the political arena, is the horror of life millions may have to grapple with once the Mau

Forest basin is dry. It is a smack on the face of Government allocation of the forest cover to settlers, most of who did not deserve it in the first place.

Water fountain

On Monday, several ODM MPs from outside Rift Valley dared Ruto to dump the party — unfurling another interesting picture.

As they wrangle the first column of potential victims of environmental disaster would be, in Kenya’s political parlance, their own people.

The Mau Forest Complex, which consisted of 22 forests until one was completely parceled out by Kanu regime, forms part of upper catchment

for all except one of the main rivers cutting through the Western side of Rift Valley.

According to United Nations Environmental Programme (Unep), Kenya Forest Network and PM’s Task Force on Mau, the complex, which has been at the centre, is the main water fountain for 12 main rivers.

Five of them end up in Lake Victoria, which is the source of River Nile, that is 6650 kilometres and is the lifeline of Sudan, Egypt and to some extent

Uganda. These rivers are; Nzoia, Yala, Nyando, Mara, and Sondu. River Ewaso Nyiro starts off at Mau and flows all the way to Lake Natron in Tanzania, feeding crops, whetting the thirst of man and his stock, as well as wild animals and balancing the ecosystem around it.

Lake Nakuru, famous of its worldrenowned stock of flamingos is fed by Mau through four rivers: Njoro, Makalia, Naishi and Nderit.

Kerio River also originates in Mau and meanders its

way all the way to Lake Turkana — and is considered like those that feed Lake Victoria and Lake Natron a transboundary river because its flow spills over Kenya’s national borders.

Lake Baringo and the communities between it and Mau, when considered in linear formation, thrive on

Molo River, whose level, especially on the Nakuru-Koibatek-Baringo phase, has fallen drastically.

Rivers flowing from the Mau are the lifeline for major tourism destinations including Masai Mara Game Reserve and Lake Nakuru National Park

which recorded incomes of Sh513 million and Sh650 million respectively from entry fees alone in 2007.

Lake Nakuru has been drying up following the dwindling waters in River Makalia, thereby affecting the fragile ecosystem that attracts flamingos

to the lake.

"The market value of goods and serves generate in the tea, tourism and energy sectors alone to which the Mau has contributed in excess of Sh20 billion a year," says the taskforce report prepared for Cabinet.

The report clarifies that the Sh20 billion does not reflect provisional services such as water supply to ur- ban areas (Bomet, Egerton University, Elburgon, Eldama Ravine, Kericho, Molo, Nakuru, Narok and Njoro towns) or support to rural livelihoods.

This figure also does not reflect the potential economic development in the catchments of the Mau Forest Complex. It is estimated that the Mau

has the potential to produce 535 megawatts of hydroelectric power, representing 47 per cent of installed electricity generation capacity.

Poor flow of water from this water tower has led to reduced inflow of water into the Sondu Miriu hydroelectric power plant that is currently operating

below capacity.

The rivers are also the lifeline for a number of other conservation areas whose tourism potential is not fully exploited — including Kakamega National

Reserve, Kerio Valley National Reserve, South Turkana National Reserve, Lake Baringo and Lake Natron.

The last two are classified as Ramsar Sites — or Wetlands of International Importance.