Kericho victory a win for JAP but loss for Ruto

Monday, we witnessed two by-elections that were neither important nor needed but a waste of time and money for Kenyans. We are less than two years away from the General elections. What we witnessed Monday is blatant waste and an incompetence of Kenyan leaders who are focused more on power struggles than development goals.

Had the president not chosen elected individuals for other government posts, and instead looked for skill within the millions of Kenyans willing to work, we would have saved more money than what was gathered over the First Lady Marathon. It could have built approximately five times the number of clinics the marathon has aimed to acquire.

Last December, I wrote an article titled ‘Is it now time for William Ruto to leave the Jubilee Alliance?’ because all actions seemed to suggest one side was doing its best to sabotage the other.

For instance, the recent events concerning the ICC and Rift Valley politicians claiming that the president has turned his back on his deputy, former CS Waiguru naming members of URP in the NYS scandal, claims that people are trying to scuttle the deputy president's 2022 ambitions and the suspicious absence of the president on campaign trails in Kericho yet he spent several weeks campaigning in the Coastal region.

The choosing of elected individuals from the CORD strong hold and from a Jubilee strong hold was deliberate and a calculated test of influence within the ruling coalition which can only bring us to two conclusions;

1) The president spent a better time of December and January in Coast. He was testing the influence he could have over CORD strong holds. We rarely saw the deputy getting involved in the campaigns. The president himself was totally involved in it, only to be a no show when it came to the Kericho campaigns. He has proved that indeed he has the ability to make a reasonable dent from the outcome of the elections.

2) This was a litmus test for the deputy president to see if he still commands the undying loyalty of Rift Valley. We all know since 2002 KANU has had little or no influence in Rift Valley politics and since coming to power in 2013, KANU has been part of the Jubilee Coalition. The assertion by the deputy president that some people are trying to sabotage his 2022 presidential ambitions just goes to confirm that the Kericho by-election was done deliberately to test him and his URP party. At the same time, his nemeses were working on the resurgence of KANU as a political force within the Rift Valley.  Knowing that KANU was and is still part of Jubilee in the just concluded by-elections was self-defeating where one party within the coalition was deliberately pitted against another. At the end of the day, whoever won, Jubilee Coalition was still the one claiming victory and there was never really a contest but rather a test of personal political influence. In that contest, the TNA side of Jubilee has proven that URP and specifically Ruto can be made to fight for every single vote when it comes to Rift Valley.

Yes KANU lost the by-election but it is on the road to recovery when it comes to political and individual influence within the Rift Valley. Having a sudden resurgence and gathering at least 1/3 of the votes after the deputy spent so much time fighting tooth and nail and even pleading and begging for forgiveness from residents was merely meant to humiliate him.

Come 2022, TNA could just as well do away with URP and side with KANU just as the deputy claimed powerful people are out to sabotage his presidential ambitions of 2022. KANU resurgence might just be the tool needed to achieve that.