Can Libya's Operation Odyssey Dawn serve as deterrent to Africa’s dictators?

Public Watchdog

The odds and ends of remaining African, Arab and possibly Asian totalitarianism have useful lessons to draw from Libya’s Operation Odyssey Dawn for those who choose to turn against their people.

Col Muammar Gaddafi, who could be Africa’s longest elusive strongman and self-professed kings of kings is presently experiencing his moment of truth for turning against his people with military hardware and airpower.

Yes, Gaddafi has surely overstayed his welcome, having been in power for over 40 years. Today, Gaddafi cannot stop sweeping change, now characterised as people’s revolution power.

It all started in Tunisia, then Egypt and now in Libya with several countries in the Middle East including Bahrain and Yemen, facing what could be their defining moments, too.

Mirage of popularity

Change is unstoppable, no matter the defiance of the totalitarian regimes. Why? When the people determine it is time for change and they have no other democratic means of effecting such change, then no amount of force can prevent people’s power.

History has shown us several regimes that have fallen when the people could no longer tolerate the level of corruption, cronyism, poverty, unemployment and violation of human rights and denial of freedom of expression or democratic rights.

What, then, are the critical factors at play?

First, it is essential to note that during lthe ast few weeks, Gaddafi appeared in a state of denial with misplaced illusions of popularity and indispensability. While attacking his people with his military might, his regime demonstrated defiance only comparable to the last days of the late dictator Saddam Hussein of Iraq.

The questions remain: Why do leaders overstay their welcome in power? How come they cannot see the signs of the times? Who are to blame in evolution of regimes into totalitarianism? Does sycophancy make leaders overstay in power until they think the power that ‘ring-fences’ their regime is impenetrable? Or could it be a false sense of security, a mirage of popularity and indispensability or a combination of these?

The ultimate question is why should close family members of totalitarian regimes join in the sycophancy? One would think that clarity of issues is all that matters in any advice from the inner circles, including families.

It is, therefore, no longer a question of whether, but when the Gaddafi regime will give way to a new one.

Second, it is the rush to fill the emerging political vacuum that should now worry the international community and the people of countries affected by the emerging people power. Why? Because there are no legal or institutional structures to allow and facilitate people’s participatory democracy.

Pomposity

Fascism could again breed new forms of repression. Thus, the searching question remains: Will emerging regimes meet the high expectations of the people? Will it be better or worse than the dissipating regimes? That outcome, of course, remains a matter of conjecture at the moment.

Kenyans have continued to witness sustained pomposity and impudence by those assigned positions of significant responsibility in government.

In fact, current national debate focuses on intolerance of impunity on the part of any leader — no matter their position of influence or authority.

At least, Kenyans have choices and democratic, constitutional means of effecting desired changes during general elections. Thus, it is such right to democratic expression of electing leaders that must be safeguarded and not hijacked by vested interests.

It must now be clear that the collective will of the people and those of the international community would resist any such meddling aimed at imposing leadership through non-democratic means.

Indeed, Kenyans are making progress in evolving their democracy. In this respect, actors seeking to capture political power or vest their cronies with positions of authority through non-democratic means will not succeed. Neither will any attempt to preserve and perpetuate impunity.

Third, the resolve of the international community has been demonstrated in the Libyan case, in that the world will no longer be a helpless witness to any State’s obliteration of populations to ensure preservation of tyrannical regimes.

This must also serve as a warning to the Ivory Coast regime that has refused to allow the will of the Ivoirians to prevail. In this latter case, the Laurent Gbagbo regime has refused to hand over power to poll winner Allassane Ouattara with military backing in what can be characterised as staying in power by all means.

Today Gaddafi is in his bunker, seeking to use his people as human shields, but yesterday those opposed to him were referred to as rats and terrorists.

Finally, Moreno-Ocampo has his job cut in Libya and Ivory Coast; perhaps they now need him more urgently than in Kenya where stability is now on course, in this matter of compelling public interest.

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