The current milk shortage is being discussed primarily as a problem of supply, prices and agricultural production, but it is also a symptom of a much larger and increasingly urgent crisis: Kenya’s vulnerability to climate change. In recent weeks, supermarkets and other retailers have reported shortages of fresh milk, with some limiting the quantities consumers can purchase, while farmers and processors have struggled with declining supplies.
Formal milk deliveries to processors fell from 84.4 million litres in June 2026 to 81.3 million litres in July, a decline of 3.7 per cent, with preliminary indications suggesting that August deliveries declined further. The government has attributed the reduction principally to prolonged dry conditions, which have reduced pasture and increased pressure on animal feed. The immediate problem may therefore appear to be that there is not enough milk in the market, but the deeper problem is that the environmental conditions necessary to produce that milk are becoming increasingly unreliable.
Dairy production is particularly vulnerable to changes in rainfall because so much of Kenya’s milk production depends, directly or indirectly, on rain-fed agriculture. Cows need sufficient water and nutritious feed to produce milk, and when the rains fail, both become more difficult and expensive to obtain. As a result, poor nutrition affects the physical condition of cattle, while inadequate water and heat stress further reduce productivity.
The current situation must not merely be looked at as a loss caused by occasional drought, but must instead be read within the context of climate change. It is fair to assume that droughts have always occurred in Kenya, and it would be inaccurate to attribute every individual dry season directly to climate change. What climate change does, however, is alter the conditions under which these events occur, increasing the risks associated with rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and more frequent or severe climate extremes. Kenya’s own climate reporting has documented warmer-than-average conditions, declining soil moisture and the effects of drought on livestock, including reduced milk yields and fertility. The Kenya dairy sector is also overwhelmingly made up of smallholder farmers, many of whom have limited financial capacity to absorb the cost of buying feed when pasture fails. This creates a particularly dangerous cycle, whereby climate variability reduces production, reduced production raises costs, higher costs squeeze farmers, and farmers with fewer resources become even less capable of investing in systems that would protect them from the next climatic shock.
The possibility of unusually heavy rainfall during the coming El Niño period adds another layer to this vulnerability. Current regional forecasts indicate that the El Niño episode is expected to strengthen through late 2026, with eastern parts of the region facing increased rainfall and a heightened risk of flooding. It is important not to frame this simply as drought being followed by rain, as though rainfall automatically solves the problem created by drought. The transition from prolonged dryness to intense rainfall can itself produce severe agricultural consequences, particularly where soils have degraded, vegetation cover has been lost or land has become compacted. Soil crusting and compaction can decrease rainwater infiltration and increase surface runoff, meaning that instead of soaking gradually into the ground and replenishing soil moisture, intense rainfall only moves rapidly across the surface, contributing to erosion, waterlogging and flooding. Rainfall may eventually regenerate pasture and replenish water sources, but intense rainfall, as is predicted for the rest of the year, can also destroy fodder, flood grazing areas, damage agricultural land and disrupt roads and markets through which feed and milk move.
There is consequently a danger in treating Kenya’s environmental crises as a sequence of unrelated emergencies, as this perspective encourages a politics of response rather than prevention, even though the underlying vulnerabilities are increasingly predictable. The fact that climate forecasts can provide warning of drought and excessive rainfall creates an opportunity to move from simply responding to disasters towards anticipating them.
The milk shortage should therefore prompt a much broader conversation about what climate resilience means for Kenya’s food system. Emergency feed is necessary when farmers are already facing drought, but it cannot substitute for investment in climate-resilient fodder systems, water harvesting, pasture restoration, soil conservation, drought-tolerant feed crops, agricultural extension services and infrastructure that allows farmers to preserve fodder during productive seasons. Climate-smart feeding practices are an important means of improving productivity and strengthening farmers’ resilience, so that should the cycle repeat itself, farmers are prepared and have the tools on hand to deal with the problem.
The present milk shortage should therefore not be treated as an isolated agricultural inconvenience that will disappear when the next rains arrive. Even if the October–December rains restore pasture and milk production, the underlying vulnerability will remain unless Kenya invests in systems capable of withstanding both prolonged drought and excessive rainfall.
The current crisis is another indication that climate change is no longer a distant environmental concern. It is already influencing what farmers can produce and what consumers can buy. Kenya cannot control the global climate on its own, but it can reduce its contribution to the problem while investing seriously in adaptation and resilience. The choice is increasingly between preparing for a more volatile climate and repeatedly paying the much higher social and economic cost of responding after disaster has already arrived.
