The Indian Ocean that feeds and employs thousands coast residents is losing its strength due to climate change that is making it warmer, too acidic, and leaving more carbon dioxide in the air, according to the United Nations’ 2026 Climate Technology Progress Report, released in Copenhagen on Wednesday.
The report shows that the ocean absorbs about 30 per cent of human-made carbon dioxide emissions and roughly 90 per cent of the excess heat from global warming. It urges governments to invest urgently in “Ocean Carbon Intelligence” to protect the sea’s role in regulating the climate.
That job is now under strain. “Rising temperatures, acidification, deoxygenation, pollution, and ecosystem degradation are disrupting the ocean processes that enable this critical climate-regulating function,” the report says.
Put simply, the report produced by the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre with the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) and the UN climate change convention’s Technology Executive Committee, states that water is becoming too warm, too acidic and too polluted to do its work. A weaker ocean leaves
“The ocean has helped buy humanity time in the fight against climate change. We cannot afford to take that role for granted,” said Martin Krause, director of the Climate Change Division at the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
The report proposes Ocean Carbon Intelligence as a framework that links ocean science, monitoring technology, data systems and analytical tools to show how carbon moves through the sea. It argues that governments, researchers and investors eyeing ocean-based climate solutions must first fund observation, data infrastructure and modelling to close the gaps in knowledge.
For Kenya, the findings are not distant science. They affects livelihoods of thousands of residents on Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties in four ways.
The first is the Blue Economy. President William Ruto’s government has made fisheries, maritime transport, aquaculture and coastal tourism a major plank of its economic plan. All depend on a healthy ocean. If it weakens, fish stocks fall, coral reefs bleach and fishermen in Old Town, Likoni, Kilifi and Lamu return home with empty nets.
The second is mangroves. Kenya has more than 60,000 hectares of them, spread across Lamu, Gazi Bay in Kwale, Mida Creek in Kilifi, and Tudor in Mombasa. These forests store far more carbon than those on land, by some estimates up to 10 times as much. The report names blue carbon restoration as a key climate technology. Kenya’s Mikoko Pamoja project in Gazi Bay, described as the world’s first community-led mangrove carbon credit scheme, already sells credits abroad. The UN is now calling for such projects to be scaled up.
The third is the sea level. A weaker ocean means more heat, rising seas and stronger storms. In Mombasa, the Port, Nyali Bridge and much of Old Town sit only a few metres above sea level, so the risk is to infrastructure as well as to people.
The fourth is data. The report notes that major gaps in ocean observation and scientific understanding still limit governments’ ability to assess climate risks. The Western Indian Ocean is among the least monitored, and the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI) in Mombasa has asked for more buoys, sensors and research vessels.
The report was endorsed by Inia Seruiratu, the Pacific COP31 Envoy for the Ocean, who called for the sea to be placed at the heart of global climate action.
“Science, innovation and Indigenous knowledge together offer our best pathway towards a more resilient future,” he said. That has a familiar ring on the Kenyan Coast, where Mijikenda elders read the tides and Bajuni fishermen know the breeding seasons of the fish they catch.
The report also sounds a note of caution. Interest in seaweed farming, ocean alkalinity enhancement and marine carbon dioxide removal is growing, but these methods can only complement deep, sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, not replace them. They must also be backed by sound science, transparency and safeguards.
“Ocean innovation has significant potential, but its success will depend on strong governance, public trust and sustained investment in knowledge, capacity and international cooperation,” Mr Krause said.
As Kenya prepares for COP31, the report points to a clear agenda. That means funding KMFRI and ocean monitoring, protecting and restoring mangroves in Lamu, Kwale and Kilifi, backing community-led blue carbon projects such as Gazi Bay, and putting the ocean at the centre of the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions.
For decades, the ocean has soaked up carbon and cooled the planet. The UN’s message from Copenhagen is that this cannot go on for ever, and that the Coast now has a stake in saving the sea that has long protected it.
