Opposition boss Raila Odinga is usually a very astute reader of his political constituency. He has managed to remain relevant to this very loyal voter fan base for the better part of three decades, but when one looks at the strange tale of the NASA ‘swearing in’, one begins to sense that the old lion might have miscalculated a step or two.

The original alternative swearing in was supposed to have happened on December 12th.

This was a day laden with symbolism, it was a public holiday celebrating Kenya’s independence from Great Britain, and the eyes of the world would have been on Kenya. The mood among Raila fans was ecstatic- here, finally, was the occasion for the indefatigable old man to actualise what many of his fans believe is his destiny: to be President of the Republic of Kenya.

Even if any such recognition would have been limited to half the country - after all, allegiance to Uhuru Kenyatta is also barely half the country.

And so all NASA fans prepared for the big day. Two days to the swearing in, however, maters changed quite suddenly. On December 10th, NASA luminary Musalia Mudavadi whose role in the NASA coalition appears a bit nebulous, with detractors rather derisively branding him a “village chief” within the coalition- hastily called a press conference at the “Okoa Kenya” Secretariat headquarters and put off the swearing in, indefinitely.

Mudavadi was accompanied by his tribesman Moses Wetangula, whose role in the NASA coalition is not very clear either. The two main NASA principals, Raila Odinga and his sidekick Kalonzo Musyoka, were nowhere to be seen at that event.

The disappointment in NASAland was overwhelming. In short order, the disappointment turned to anger as Raila fans took to social media to hurl insults at the old man. Choice sobriquets were lobbed at him, including “coward”, “time-waster”, even the dreaded “jubilee mole”.

Villagers speculated that one or two cowards within the NASA leadership team had prevailed upon Raila to cancel the swearing in. Regardless of what prompted him to cancel it, his followers felt badly let down- so badly that it appears Raila felt the negative energy from them. And so, a few days ago, Raila turned around and revived the swearing-in. now, he tells us, he will be sworn in on January 30th, at Uhuru Park.

This, obviously, is a ceremony that’s designed to fail to take place. Had Raila proceeded to be sworn in as planned on December 12th in Mombasa, he’d have had a chance of pulling it off: the security forces had been deployed all around the country to secure Jamhuri Day commemoration venues.

Police presence in Mombasa would have been thin on the ground, and all of Raila’s fan base would have been off work for the holiday. It’s not difficult to see how millions of them would have made the journey to Mombasa to witness his swearing-in, creating a logistical nightmare for the security forces and potentially forcing Uhuru and Ruto to the negotiating table.

But Raila, once again, managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of potential victory. By postponing his ceremony, he killed the fire in his fans’ bellies. The anger of many of them will ensure that they ignore his new swearing-in pledge. Further, January 30th is an ordinary working day, a Tuesday.

No employer will grant leave to even the most dedicated Raila followers to go attend the ceremony, and not even the most die-hard Baba fanatics want to lose their jobs.

Finally, the entire corpus of security forces will converge on Nairobi on Monday 29th and Tuesday 30th.

Raila and his motley NASA crew will not be allowed to get anywhere near Uhuru Park on those two days, and the only result of this folly will be NASA fans dying in hails of bullets for nothing. All of it totally pointless, really. If anything, the event is likely to be postponed, again.