Competing interests raise the stakes in Nyando campaigns

By OSCAR OBONYO

Even as residents of Nyando await the Supreme Court’s decision on whether or not they will participate a repeat poll the day after tomorrow, the constituency is already chocking under competing political interests from outsiders.

Besides the former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who is also the party leader of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) — the dominant party in Luo Nyanza, there is the Leader of Minority in the Senate and Ford-Kenya Chairman, Moses  Wetang’ula.

Already, Nyando is responsible for the current unease between Raila and  Wetang’ula, who are co-principals in the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD). The current MP, Fred Outa, whose election has been challenged is a member of Raila’s ODM, while his challenger, Jared Okello of Ford-Kenya, enjoys  Wetang’ula’s backing.

And the vested interests do not stop with the two. Nairobi County Governor Evans Kidero, his Kisumu County counterpart Jack Ranguma and Kisumu County Women Representative Rose Nyamunga, have been roped in the Nyando campaigns. 

The involvement by Kidero, who recently endorsed the candidature of Okello, may be persuaded by the interest of raising his own political profile in Luo Nyanza, and charting a new political path independent of that by Raila. Kidero’s interest in Nyando is also understandable, considering that his late wife, Abegail, hailed from the constituency and locals in the area still fondly refer to him as “or” (Luo for son in law).

Ranguma, on the other hand, is a constituent of Nyando and is naturally keen on who becomes his MP. Meanwhile, the Women Rep is wife to Outa’s perennial political rival and former area MP Eric Nyamunga. By virtue of this fact alone, Outa’s supporters are claiming the County MP is already campaigning against the incumbent.  

“While this is supposed to be a small matter of the people of Nyando, there are so many political players and other outside forces with vested interests here. It is no longer a matter merely of Nyando, but a crucible up of political competition between individuals, CORD member parties, and even Jubilee versus Opposition,” regrets Outa.

According to the MP, Nyando has given opportunity to various players at different levels to flex their political might: “Nyando, he maintains, is just a pawn in a bigger game and I wish these people would leave us alone to decide what is good for us.”

Paltry votes

But Outa would not be drawn in the nitty-gritty of the campaigns, saying there is an ongoing petition, and he is barred by legislative dictates to comment on the same. However, his key challenger, Okello, — who according to the official figures of the electoral body trailed Outa by paltry votes — exudes confidence.

“That I lost narrowly and unfairly on another party ticket, other than ODM, which is the popular outfit here, says a lot about my individual political strength and the people’s faith in me. The party will not be an issue if the chance of a repeat poll comes by,” says Okello.

The Standard On Sunday has separately established from sources close to the former PM that the Orange leader was indeed considering backing the candidature of Okello, who local leaders admit is fairly popular, only for Kidero to allegedly throw a spanner in the works.     

“Having witnessed the bungled party primaries of last year, Jakom (Raila) does not want to gamble any more. But even if Okello is the preferred candidate, Kidero has spoilt it for him. By anointing Okello, Raila is in a fix to either reject or re-anoint him because if Kidero’s candidate gets his way, it will send a wrong signal to our people — that the Nairobi governor now calls the shots in Luo Nyanza,” an MP from the region confided in this writer.

Political reality

The import of the above political reality leaves the ODM leader with two options — to re-anoint Okello and accommodate him as his preferred candidate (if the courts order for a repeat poll) or to regard him as a Kidero candidate and gear himself up for political battle, which he must win. The unlikely loss for an ODM candidate, coming after Kidero’s declared support for an alternative candidate, would mark the beginning of the decline of Raila’s popularity.

Says Samuel Anyango Ong’ou, Leader of Majority of Kisumu County Assembly: “Raila’s political influence in Nyando and the rest of Luo Nyanza remains strong and unchallenged. Equally, ODM remains the party of choice. But if the party fields a weak candidate, I am afraid anything could happen”.     

According to Ong’ou, clan politics and individual strengths will shape the campaigns and determine the victor in the event of a repeat poll. There are slightly more than 10 major clans and sub-clans in the region. Outa and Ranguma hail from Kobura and Kabonyo clans, in Kadibo Division, while Okello is member of the Kobong’o clan in Dimira Division, which has eight clans.

This clan and geographical mapping means political leaders in the constituency are from one division. This reality has given Okello supporters a weapon to push their campaign case, that Dimira Division also deserves leadership opportunity.  Outa considers himself a target of the on going campaign schemes that appear to isolate him: “Why is everybody, including the two governors of Nairobi and Kisumu, ganging up against me. You can only do that against a strong and not a weak candidate.”

However, his challenger, Okello, identifies the biggest challenge for CORD as being how to come up with potent strategies to clinch the presidency in 2017: “We must therefore ensure that the former Prime Minister does so this time around and time is running out. We must therefore not meddle in the Nyando polls at the expense of the bigger goal, which is the seat of presidency.”

Okello and Outa might be the only candidates eyeing the Nyando seat in the event that it falls vacant on Tuesday. However, they are the key contenders and pose perhaps the biggest political challenge for Raila and the umbrella CORD outfit.