Elections will be won on basis of message politicians sell, not tribe

By Billow Khalid

God forbid, save for any nationally unavoidable occurrence, Kenya’s most momentous General Election is fixed for March 4.

 Owing to a series of factors, this election would fundamentally be different. One, the nation is taking a first sharp bend under the new Constitution. Two, for the first time key elective posts to be contested by candidates running on different party tickets and platforms are the president, governors, senators, MPs, and women’s representatives.

Winning any of these elective positions under our nascent constitutionalism won’t be a walk in the park for both the candidates and their sponsoring parties. The answers to the question what determines who we vote for as president, governors, senators, and MPs will be as diverse as the expected 18 million Kenyan voters.

But the concept of ‘medium voter theorem’ predict that politicians who run on the issues of what the immediate term main stream voters want will be elected and views of the people at the extremes will not matter.

May be that is what US Republican presidential candidate had in mind when he was recently quoted as saying to wealthy donors that “47 per cent of Americans are dependent on Government and that his role is not to worry about those people” as they would vote for Barack Obama anyway.

Majority of political leaders have narrow and short perspectives of things because getting elected and once in office, retaining those positions are their primary motivation.

While reflecting on this, I ask myself “What do most of adult Kenyans think at night? What issues make them sleepless? Why do many of our young citizens love to move to second country and quit Kenya if given slightest opportunity?”

For sure, outside chance or luck, factors that determine who wins majority of our votes for elective posts during the General Election will revolve around five issues and surprisingly, ethnicity isn’t one of them. These are the credibility of the candidates themselves, (c), their innovations and positions on public finance reforms, (f), their organisational skills, (o), and resource capacities, (r), and finally the power of their campaign messages, (m), forming the acronym, ‘C. Form’.

The three main assets in the election are the candidates themselves, resources and the message as to why one is running for office and why he or she is the best person they should vote for. In an election, the candidates are the products on display and the voters make their choices. As rational people, history has shown when given free hand voters make credible choices as to who they elect. Kenyans would not be any different.

Most elections fail because of poor strategies, organizations and executions caused by insufficient resources. A resource is the third worst part of the election. Second are the candidate’s competency, character and physical flaws.

Losing the election is the worst. Having no issues or poorly crafted, redundant, uncompetitive and unimaginative election message is bad.

The thought on campaign issues reminds me of a famous joke attributed to an American public intellectual, Norman Finkelstein.

Finkelstein said one time a journalist interviewed three people: a Russian, a Pole and an Israeli. The reporter asked the Russian, “Excuse me, what is your opinion of meat shortage?” The Russian answered, “What is opinion?” Then the reporter asked the Pole, “Excuse me, what is your opinion of meat shortage?” The Pole responded, “What is meat?” Then the Israeli: “Excuse me, what is your opinion of meat shortage?” The Israeli responded, “What is excuse me?”

The results of September 17 where ODM and TNA became victorious even in most unlikely wards confirmed the thesis that Kenyan voters have become off age.

The message should and must acknowledge, in the science of administration, whether public or private, the basic ‘good’ is efficiency.  Any candidate who picks this trajectory in his or her campaign is fairly assured of victory.

Writer is a social commentator