Let's be honest; a Nairobi with Mike Sonko Mbuvi in City Hall is not a Nairobi that any Nairobian imagined. It's mostly the so-called middle-class Nairobians who are hyperventilating at the thought that they may have to defer to Sonko's gubernatorial authority.
The middle-classes, who supposedly got off their backsides in 2013 to vote for medicine man Evans Kidero, are now having heart palpitations because Sonko's bid for the governor's office is not as ridiculous as they thought it was.
Ridiculous because while Sonko is flush with more cash than your average middle-class Nairobian will see in their lifetime, he lacks essential pizza-eating, road-tripping, posh-whiskey-drinking leadership credentials.
CRIPPLING POVERTY
The 35 per cent of city dwellers who fall into the middle-income tax bracket might be drowning in debt but they are all about keeping up appearances. This is because Nairobi's middle-class culture is aspirational. The central focus is to climb into a higher social class. Looked at from this perspective, Sonko is a cultural philistine.
And yet, was it really the middle-class that got Governor Kidero into office? If you consider that 65 per cent of Nairobi residents live in informal settlements, surviving on a pittance when compared to their middle-class compatriots, the idea that the Kidero could have won without support from Sonko's base is ridiculous.
Four years down the line and Nairobi's lower-income earners are realising the error of their ways, perhaps more so than anyone else. Kidero was supposed to restore the capital to its former glory, to lift the ordinary man out of the mud. Instead, he split his time between pandering to the interests of the silent elite and allowing City Hall cartels to run roughshod over the wants and needs of wananchi.
The backlash against Kidero - Nairobi's premier establishment candidate - now forces the city county to contend with a slew of protest candidates including Sonko, Babu Owino, Steve Mbogo and Charles Njagua. Given the nature of Kenyan politics and the uncanny ability of the 'system' to pollute even the best of intentions, this new wave of leaders may well go the way of their establishment predecessors.
But beyond Nairobi and its crop of greenhorns, a grand battle looms between a petulant incumbent and a perennial presidential contender. President Uhuru Kenyatta is looking to extend his legacy beyond one term, while former premier Raila Odinga is making what is probably a last-ditch attempt to serve that elusive first term.
In the Kenyatta/Odinga contest, the Kenyatttas have the upper hand. While both families can claim a certain nobility, the Kenyatttas have long thought themselves to be Kenya's royalty. This is why Uhuru has the annoying tendency to behave like a prince. Privileged, entitled, out-of-touch and disinterested in the struggles of the common man.
The Odingas on the other hand are more easily identified as mid-level courtiers, welcome at court but denied entry into the monarchy's inner circle. As such, they have had the veneer of aristocracy but have never been allowed to identify as true royals. For decades, they have been in the political wilderness, on the outside looking in. And unlike the prince, they have not been averse to mingling with the man on the street, even when that association has been purely in pursuit of power.
With this interpretation of the facts, a solution to our fractured state of political affairs becomes readily apparent. Why not let Prince Uhuru sit atop his throne in the guise of a ceremonial president, and then install Courtier Raila as the premier? The prince would then be left to his own devices while the premier got on with the business of governance.
But if that is too bitter a pill for the tribal palate, any unified government formation would work just as well. We cannot run away from the fact that Kenyans remain deeply divided along tribal lines and the quickest way to bring the people together is to institute a government of national unity.
I would much rather a federation of communities, each of whom are fairly represented, than a two-tribe-take-all system of governance.
Ms Masiga is Peace and Security Editor at the Conversation Africa
