As the country heads towards elections, one of the battle grounds between the Opposition and the Government is Western Kenya.
Opinion is divided about whether the Jubilee government’s efforts to win voters in the region has borne any fruit.
While local Jubilee point men maintain President Uhuru Kenyatta will get a big chunk of the votes on August 8, there are those who feel the region is NASA’s to take.
Analysts say Jubilee is looking to capitalise on challenges NASA is facing to make fresh inroads in the region.
One of the challenges is that a number of local leaders are not happy that Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga was named the NASA presidential candidate. Many had hoped he would support Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi to fly the Opposition flag.
Contentious primaries
In addition, the contentious ODM and ANC primaries have offered Jubilee operatives in the region some fodder.
Mumias East MP Benjamin Washiali said NASA should forget the Luhya vote now that Mudavadi was not given the ticket. “The game ended when Raila was picked to fly their flag,” said Mr Washiali.
Martin Andati, a political analyst, also believes Western Kenya is up for grabs and that Jubilee stands a chance to get votes albeit with some difficulties.
“The reactions that greeted the unveiling of Raila as the flag bearer speak volumes about the direction Western will take. It was thought that a Musalia Mudavadi-Kalonzo Musyoka ticket would have been the best choice. Locals are not happy,” said Mr Andati.
Andati said the shambolic ODM nominations could see the party lose support in the region, especially because some of the party’s staunch members felt some candidates were shortchanged.
“It is a combination of many factors that will give Jubilee a chance to prowl Western Kenya again and even upset NASA in the coming elections,” he said.
Scholar Amukowa Anangwe said naming the NASA line-up was of major political significance and would have far-reaching implications on the electoral competition beyond Western Kenya.
“Widespread anti-Jubilee sentiment in several parts of the country is all Raila needs to dislodge Jubilee in August,” said the political science lecturer at Tanzania’s University of Dodoma.
“The NASA team is more inclusive compared to Jubilee, which remains essentially a two-man show featuring President Kenyatta and DP William Ruto. This fact endears many people to NASA,” he said.
Prof Anangwe added that UhuRuto missed an opportunity to change the negative perception that Jubilee belongs to two communities during the merger of affiliate parties.
“That was their opportunity to bring in more communities to complement their ethno-regional bases.”
He said results from the just-concluded party primaries showed Kenyans were in no mood for the status quo.
Right strategy
“They want a change of guard in Government for its own sake, whether or not this may prove fruitless in the long run. NASA is likely to ride on anti-Jubilee sentiment, especially in Western, to catapult Raila to power. The political formation will ride roughshod over Jubilee at all levels,” he said.
“This would not have been the case if Jubilee had adopted the right strategy, underpinned by a deeper understanding of the Luhya psyche. Jubilee needed to engage its local leaders in a participatory manner to gain a foothold in the region.”
But Washiali and his colleagues, Emnanuel Wangwe (Navakholo), David Were (Matungu), Bernard Shinali (Ikolomani) and Malulu Injendi (Malava), maintain the region will support the Government because of what it has done for them.
“Jubilee has revived Webuye Pan Paper, started Kibabii University and several technical training institutions, spent billions on bailing out Mumias Sugar Company and developing hospitals, and several roads in the area are currently under construction,” said Washiali.
“We ask the people to support President Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election bid because it is realistic and we stand to benefit more under his leadership as opposed to voting for NASA where Mudavadi only plays second fiddle,” he said.
