By Benard Sanga

The political landscape at the Coast could be shifting ground if the results of the last general election is anything to go by.

A good number of people considered immigrants to the region have contested political seats and won. The wave could sweep away more locals in the next elections if the trend is to be maintained.

One of the most significant outcomes of the 2013 polls in the region were in Nyali and Lamu West constituencies where the so-called “immigrant candidates” won the parliamentary seats.

But this was not the first time an “outsider” won an elective at the Coast. The late Kennedy Kiliku, an ethnic Kamba, won the Changamwe constituency seat in 1983 and represented to 1997 while Basil Criticos, a Kenyan Greek, was elected twice to represent Taveta constituency in the early 1990s.

But the wins by Hezron Awiti Bolo, an ethnic Luo, and Julius Ndegwa, a Kikuyu from Muranga, was significant for their audacity and significance.

Safe seats

The two candidates won against the wishes of the dominant political parties that had tried to frustrate their candidature in favour of contestants from the local indigenous tribes.

In Nyali, ODM preferred John Mcharo while in Lamu, TNA only cleared contestants from the ethnic Bajuni tribe leaving Ndegwa with no option but to join the Kenya National Congress (KNC).

Awiti and Ndegwa’s wins broke new ground for capturing the ‘safe seats’ for the Miji Kenda, Swahili and Arab communities. The two leaders also bust the myth that the so-called immigrants could ignite a backlash for vying and winning political seats at the Coast.

Significantly, their wins showed that the  number of ‘immigrant’ tribes in Mombasa, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale are growing. However, Awiti achieved the rare feat by winning the support of local tribes as well as upcountry voters.

For decades, the Arab/Swahili elite who according to a report by IPSO Synovate-Kenya comprise only 2 per cent of the county’s population has controlled Mombasa politics.

Analysts attribute this to the elite’s financial muscle, control of Islamic religious institution and stranglehold on land, which has rendered most Miji Kenda serfs.

“The main coalitions, especially Jubilee, tried to discourage immigrants from contesting for political seats in the region but there is nothing really the locals can do in cosmopolitan areas and I think Changamwe is another area that has the high chances of falling,” said Gunga Mwinga, one of the Coast region TNA leaders.

Sarah Mwikali of the Restore and Build Kenya (RKB) party and former Mombasa civic leader Margaret Okoth Olang of Ford-Kenya unsuccessfully contested for the Mombasa County Women Representative seat.

Olango who was barred by ODM garnered 1,327 votes while Mwikali managed to get 1,094.  Dr Mwinga said in an interview with The Standard on Saturday that although the number of the immigrants’ votes is increasing in Mombasa, their political decisions are largely pegged on national politics and parties. Some local analysts say their is fear among indigenous professionals that more constituencies could fall to the immigrants due to the current influx of people from upcountry, which will also deal a blow to indigenous economic, political and social goals.

Mvita Constituency in Mombasa, currently held by Abdulswamad Nassir, is believed to be next in line and could easily fall to the immigrants if they pull their act together, unless indigenous candidates find a mechanism to cooperate with the immigrants.

Indigenous votes

“It is like the fears of those who represented the region during the 1962 Lancaster Constitutional Conference that people from upcountry would come in and dominate its politics or leadership has come to pass 50 years later,” said Maimuna Mwidau, the chairperson and co-founder of the League of Muslim Women of Kenya.

Mwidau says a political movement has been launched by local professionals and a section of politicians to consolidate indigenous votes in urban centres through vigorous voter registration to contain the immigrants. According to Denis Omari, a Mombasa lawyer, the agitation from the immigrants will continue if they feel that their interests are not being taken care of by those in power at the counties.

Bound to happen

“It is bound to happen especially if the current county leaders will not accommodate their views and solve their problems. They would want to put someone in power that will do that,” said Omari in a recent telephone interview with The Standard on Saturday.

The fall of Lamu West seat, however, has been in the offing for close to a decade, although the seeds of the takeover were planted in the early 1970s with the first large scale settlement of people from Murang’a. They have been joined by other tribes, including the Luo and the Kalenjin, who reside mainly in the Mpeketoni area on the Lamu mainland.

In 2006, Muslim religious leaders sounded the first alarm bells over the swelling number of immigrants when statistics from the Ministry of Education showed that the children of settlers outnumbered ethnic Bajuni, Sanye, Orma and Aweer in secondary schools by a ratio of 6:1.

Meanwhile, migration into Lamu continued after the 2007 post-election violence and is set to explode with the construction of the Lamu port. “There is a joke going round the social network whether Lamu should be renamed Ramu because of the way the immigrants flocking the area are pronouncing it,” said Ms Mwidau referring to the ethnic Gikuyu pronunciation of the word Lamu.

According to the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census 2009, Lamu’s population stood at 101,539. Current estimates indicate that the number could double by the next election due to increased immigration into the area.

Following Ndegwa’s example, there is fear that the immigrants have now set their eyes on the gubernatorial seat.

In the last election, Governor Issa Timamy and his main challenger Fahim Twaha were forced to choose immigrants as their running mates to tap into this growing vote. Timamy settled on Eric Mugo while Twaha chose Ndungu Raphael Munyua.

Watch Malindi

According to Owen Baya, the Kilifi County Secretary, Malindi Constituency is another area that is likely to be won by a non-indigenous candidate.

“Leadership is a God given right that goes to the owners of the land everywhere. The leader always carries the aspiration and hopes of the people and I think it would be good that those who are here for business purposes should really leave the politics of the region to the indigenous communities,” said Dr Baya, a former university lecturer.

A poll by IPSOS Synovate-Kenya in February last year revealed that the immigrant share population in Mombasa County was 53 per cent compared to the combined Mijikenda, Taita, Taveta, Bajuni and Arab votes, which stood at 40 per cent.

According to the poll, Mijikenda’s  population in Mombasa was 29 per cent, followed by the Luo at 16 per cent, Kamba at 11 per cent, Luhya at 10 per cent and Kikuyu at nine per cent. Taita and Taveta were five per cent each, Kisii three per cent, Arabs at two per cent while the Meru and Kalenjin were one per cent each.

It is widely accepted in the Coast region that the immigrant voters are better educated and politically sophisticated than the local tribes.

In 2012, a report from public universities showed that indigenous students at the various institutions of higher learning in Mombasa are outnumbered by upcountry students by a ratio of 12 to 1.

Political observers say that the urban centre politics are bound to change due to the influx of the upcountry people to region.