By Juma Kwayera

Nairobi, KENYA: That Kenya faces devastating economic sanctions for not heeding warnings that it would be relegated to a pariah state is no longer a threat. It is a reality the country must come to terms with in the next two months, diplomats accredited to Nairobi say.

The international community is once again putting Kenyans on notice even as it faces heavy sanctions in the event the on-going political process interferes with the trial of two of the presidential candidates face.

And the prospects that Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North William Ruto will be holed up at the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague presents a major political test to the country that has a bearing on its security and stability.

At some stage, Kenya also will have to do with absentee president and deputy president if the Jubilee coalition clinches the election.

Escalating violence in traditionally flashpoint areas has caught the attention of the world with apprehension mounting the country could gradually slip into chaos.

Against this backdrop, the US and Britain have renewed calls for integrity, transparency and legitimacy in the polls slated for March 4 and possible rerun on April 10, which coincides with the beginning of the ICC trials. The warning by London and Washington, from whom other development partners take cue, comes barely two weeks after ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda expressed frustration with Kenya denying the court access to the crucial evidence in possession of the National Intelligence Service.

Powerful nations

It is no coincidence that the two countries, which are influential members of the UN Security Council under whose jurisdiction the court operates, commented on the upcoming polls soon after Ms Bensouda said she would seek assistance from powerful nations to compel the Government to comply and co-operate with the court.

While Britain says it will not have contact with the suspects, the US wants full co-operation with the ICC. The US Embassy further wants gains with constitutional reforms sustained, hence its fears criminal suspects would reverse the agenda. Former Ethnic PS John Githongo, who is versed with how serious communication is couched in diplomatic language, explained that the writing is already on the wall for anybody in the Government bent on subverting the judicial process.

“We still do not know the implication of resolving a judicial issue using a political process,” Githongo told The Standard On Sunday and warned further that doors would be shut on Kenya as soon as the presidential poll results are announced.

Although the two countries, Kenya’s leading development partners, did not mention specific consequences or sanctions, they left no doubt they will not be ready to do business with criminal suspects. The two account for more than half of the foreign direct investment in the domestic economy. They are also the leading financiers of social programmes that include education (free schooling), health and security. It is against this backdrop that Githongo, when highlighting the imminent danger Kenya faces, told a Law Society of Kenya forum that there are no two ways about criminal justice.

“Let me note that that same Constitution does not immunise defendants in international courts – whether they are elected officials or not – from the obligations to co-operate in the courts of justice. If a defendant does not co-operate with a court of law, they become a fugitive from justice.”

The latest reminder of the consequences the country faces if international criminal suspects are elected to the highest office came from the British High Commissioner to Kenya Christian Turner, who made it clear Kenya risks isolation if suspects of serious crimes ascend to top positions.

“My government’s position is very clear. We support end to impunity and support justice for victims of violence in 2007/2008. And therefore my government supports the ICC but that process is a judicial process not a political process,” Turner spoke at a meeting with religious in Eldoret town, Ruto’s hometown and the epicentre of the 2008 post-election violence he is accused of planning.

On its part, the US embassy is calling for a credible and legitimate process that will restore the country’s international standing.

Cooperation with ICC

“The US is committed to continue to support Kenya’s ambitious reform process as it prepares for the first national elections under the new Constitution. In the spirit of the new Constitution, which embraces transparency, accountability and integrity, we continue to urge the Kenyan government, the people of Kenya and the individuals involved to cooperate fully with the ICC proceedings and to remain focused on implementing the reform agenda for the future of Kenya,” Mr Christopher Snipes, Head of Public Communication at the embassy told The Standard On Sunday. The US and British concerns come in the wake of fears that Uhuru and Ruto, who are the Jubilee coalition presidential candidate and running mate respectively, are planning to use the presidential poll results to insulate themselves against the charges of cries against humanity. The diplomats have also openly expressed reservations the two would implement the Constitution fully.

However, speaking on the Inside Story talk show on Al Jazeera, Dr Michael Amoah, a political scientist specialising in African affairs at the London School of Economics, highlighted the thinking among development partners with regard to Kenya’s vulnerability to growing ethnic tensions that often define election outcomes.

Amoah pointed out the imminent dangers Kenya faces if Uhuru and Ruto resort to invoking immunity from trial by circumventing the legal process instituted by The Hague-based ICC.

The expert said action against the ICC ticket will be swift and ruinous to the economy, with the full impact o the consequences being absorbed by the electorate.

Together with former Head of Civil Service Francis Muthaura and radio journalist Joshua Sang, Uhuru and Ruto are expected to remain at The Hague for two years when the hearing of their cases commence on April 10, less than a month after elections. Amoah warned that the sanctions Kenya faces are punitive after Bensouda expressed concern that Nairobi has politicised a judicial process to shield suspects from criminal justice. Amoah told panellists who included Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s advisor Salim Lone and Ruto’s ally Kipchumba Murkomen that the sporadic election-related violence is already eliciting international attention, with the UN Security Council monitoring political developments.

Dr Amoah argued that integrity, transparency and legitimacy of the presidential poll would determine how the rest of the world is going to engage with East Africa’s largest economy.

Aware of the consequences, Githongo remarked at the launch of a booklet titled Realising Integrity: Walking the Talk by Law Society of Kenya: “So let me ask the questions that everyone is thinking but is afraid of articulating. The question we must answer as citizens is this: Are we ready to be governed by fugitives from international justice? Dare we risk our Constitution, which denies any person such immunity, to protect fugitives from justice? If we risk the Constitution, are we prepared to gather again, five years from now, to add new names to this list of individuals who have abused state power, profited from impunity and failed to obey the law with no consequences? Do we believe such freedom will still exist for us?”