By Juma Kwayera

Confronted with questions of whether President Kibaki should be succeeded by a kinsman or risk fuelling ethnic tension that characterise every election cycle, the Mt Kenya bloc is having a relook at its options, with pressure piling on Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta to defer his presidential ambition.

Uhuru, now the axis of central Kenya politics, is playing his cards close to the chest as he evaluates his chances of winning the top perch, the pressure from local opinion leaders notwithstanding.

Consequently, his allies say it would not surprise if he broke ranks with G7 in response to ‘prevailing conventional wisdom’ that a Kikuyu should not succeed another lest it rekindles 41-versus-1 ethnic animosity that precipitated the 2008 post-election violence.

Notably, the Deputy Prime Minister’s aides have lately been unwilling to broach the subject underlining his dilemma, with director of communication Munyori Buku wondering why the same question is not being asked of potential competitors — William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka or Martha Karua.

 

Gradual drift

“Uhuru has not told anybody he wants to quit the race. To respond to such questions is to validate a non-existent issue. Those are malicious rumours,” Mr Buku says. But political undercurrents in Central suggest otherwise, with pointers to a gradual drift to the willingness to support a non-Gema candidate.

Pressure on Uhuru has been mounting with the entry of the United Democratic Forum (UDF) led by Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, who during a tour of the region last week challenged his counterpart “gucokia guoko” (return favour). Mudavadi sacrificed his political career in 2002 to be his Uhuru’s running mate.

In a rare show of a break with Mt Kenya conservatism, Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni and Laikipia West MP Nderitu Murithi were candid with the electorate, telling them at rallies Mudavadi addressed in Maua, Sagana, and the Methodist Church in Meru that it amounted to political bigotry for the region to ask other communities to support their candidate yet they do not reciprocate.

Murithi and Kioni have been particularly candid in arguing that ethnic hostility in Rift Valley is still palpable and reconciliation is only possible if they supported a non-Gema candidate. Kioni argued it is bad faith for Gema to vote for one of their own yet they constitute just 20 per cent of the electorate. Mirithi went further and used the biblical Esther and King Modechai parable to implore the region to accept to be kingmakers for the national good.

Prior to the tour, Public Works Assistant Minister Mwangi Kiunjuri had expressed concern that ordinary Kikuyus have been “persecuted because of 20 filthy rich people.

“There is a resentment in the region. The commoners are being fought because of this rich clique. The ordinary Kikuyu is aware they are being fought for wrongs other people committed,” Kiunjuri, MP for Laikipa East, says.

 In a recent interview, Murithi, who is Assistant minister for Industrialisation told The Standard that ethnic disharmony undermines the national economy from accommodating the young and more skilled population.

“The economy must create demand and supply. As a State, we should not create revenue and give it to individuals. The Kenyan economy is at present designed to sustain 10,000 to 50,000 privileged at the top and middle class working in the civil service and hordes of labourers,” says the Assistant minister, a former World Bank employee.

Against this backdrop, Murithi told Uhuru that there are two scenarios that will work against him: Uhuru can play kingmaker and support a non-Gema candidate or alternatively ran for the seat and yield to being in the opposition, according to Murithi.

 

Pending trial

The Gema leaders are also alive to the uncertainty over whether he would be cleared by the Judiciary to run for president. There is also his impending trial at the International Criminal Court over crimes against humanity.

This is the message chairman of the Kikuyu Council of Elders Wachira Kaigwa has been tasked to deliver to Uhuru.

Kaigwa’s brief is to persuade Uhuru that he risks being relegated to the opposition as the rest of the country rallies behind a stronger non-Gema candidate. The elders have held a series of meetings with their counterparts from Western to prevail on Uhuru to step down.

Contacted, chairman of the elders from Western, Andrew Ligale, confirmed that the issue has come up in the two meetings they had so far, but the finer details have not been worked out.

“He (Uhuru) is receptive to the idea, but we recognise that we can make progress if we expanded the membership and reached out to other communities. We want to work as team and be as representative as possible. There is consensus that power cannot alternate between two communities. It is dangerous for political stability,” Ligale, former MP for Vihiga, says.

 

Dominant player

Uhuru has declared interest in the presidency on The National Alliance ticket, which in just three months after its launch has had an impact in central Kenya, where PNU, Kanu and Narc-Kenya were the dominant payers. But he has twice said publicly without elaborating that he is ready to defer his ambition and support a more “agreeable candidate”.

Kioni says that another Kikuyu presidency has the potential to inflame ethnic passions reminiscent of the 2008 post-election violence.

The prospects of the region rallying behind one candidate from outside the greater Mt Kenya has triggered stiff competition among key political players with Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Mudavadi, Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka looking for political traction in the region.

Apparently, the scramble for the region’s votes is narrowing down to the four ‘outsiders’ – Raila, Mudavadi, Ruto, and Kalonzo. Of course, there are Gichugu MP Martha Karua, and Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, who are also eyeing the bloc.

The four outsiders have toured the region in the recent past, the latest being Mudavadi.

The reception of each one of them was given points to extent of the dividends of the contrasting styles and strategies of doing politics. Of the four, the focus has shifted to Raila and Mudavadi, whose fight is causing infraction in a politically conservative region.