By Alex Ndegwa

The race to State House enters a critical phase less than eight months to elections, with presidential aspirants tussling over campaign issues as they scramble to connect with voters.

But as campaigns gather momentum, what is dominant is the usual pre-election circus of politicians shifting alliances from one political party to another.

In fact, Parliament rewrote the electoral laws to sanction party hopping until 60 days to the elections to allow MPs move to new parties in January.

New political groupings are largely built on a game of ethnic numbers rather than rallying around discernable ideology.

Loud campaigns focused on personal rhetoric seem to have drowned out issues, which surveys indicate are dear to Kenyans going to the election.

The election is even packaged in certain quarters as a referendum on the International Criminal Court’s Kenya cases. Some have portrayed it as a two-horse race between reformers and so-called non-reformers.

A review of recent opinion polls suggests voters want politicians to tackle a slowing economy, infrastructure, cost of living and unemployment.

Based on two recent surveys by Ipsos Synovate, voters want their leaders to make the economy their top priority. One of the opinion polls conducted in May found that two thirds were unhappy with the current economic situation. A significant number (42 per cent) described it as very bad.

Cost of living

The findings were similar to another done the previous month, which suggested the high cost of living is the most serious issue facing Kenyans.

More than three quarters of those surveyed (78 per cent) highlighted it as a key problem. Lack of employment was polled as the second issue of concern to voters with 62 per cent.

“As the politicians travel across the country drumming up support for their election vehicles, they would do well to focus on what matters to Kenyans,” said Maggie Ireri, Ipsos Synovate Kenya Managing Director.

“As Bill Clinton’s campaign so memorably put it,” she added, “it’s the economy, stupid!”

That statement referred to Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign in which his team used the phrase to keep the focus on the troubled US economy. Knowing Americans care a lot more about their own economic well being, Clinton defeated George HW Bush by keeping the debate focused on economic issues.

The main presidential contenders have crafted slogans to sell their candidatures. Prime Minister Raila Odinga has projected himself as the aspirant championing reforms.

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta unveiled the “I believe” The National Alliance campaign anchored on generational change to give youthful leaders a chance.

Stability card

Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi has cast himself as the aspirant who offers stability during the transition from political turmoil.

Eldoret North MP William Ruto is marketing his candidature on the platform of action — Kusema na kutenda.

Assistant Minister Peter Kenneth has rooted for “a brighter Kenya” running on a record of performance that prioritises food security, education, infrastructure, employment and manufacturing.

Gichugu MP Martha Karua has trumpeted the slogan “tujitokeze” aimed at reaching voters at low levels. Her priorities include food security, education and speedy implementation of the new Constitution.

Asked what issues they viewed important that political leaders needed to address in general, nearly half of respondents (40 per cent) cited infrastructure.

The respondents, who are eligible voters, also identified economic development (31 per cent), unemployment (16 per cent) and the high cost of living (14 per cent).

More urban dwellers (70 per cent) are of the opinion that Kenya’s economy is in bad shape compared to 61 per cent of those in the rural areas.

Some 1,024 respondents were polled in the survey conducted between April 23 and 26. Over two-thirds of the sampled respondents had at least secondary level of education.

These findings are similar to an earlier survey involving 2,000 Kenyans conducted from April 6-7, 2012 which established that the high cost of living is the most serious issue facing Kenyans.

Graft concerns

In the earlier survey, apart from high cost of living and lack of employment, the respondents were concerned about corruption (45 per cent) and poor leadership (33 per cent). This suggested voters were keen on integrity of those lining up for various positions.

Another survey by pollster Infotrak Harris done in May found out that 35 per cent of Kenyans would consider a person of high integrity and development conscious as their preferred presidential candidate.

The respondents rated highly a person of high integrity (18 per cent), development conscious and open minded (17 per cent) and transparent and accountable (15 per cent).

The poll was conducted between May 17 and 19 where a sample of 2,400 respondents was interviewed across the country. And part from the economy, peace is the other key issue voters care about (24 per cent).

“This is not surprising given the violence that marked the last election which left over 1,000 people dead and 500,000 displaced from their homes with many still languishing in IDP camps,” Ireri explained.

A report by South Consulting on implementation of reforms in June found that the environment for the next General Election was becoming increasingly divisive with some politicians continuing to mobilise along ethnic lines.

Apart from lack of issue-based campaigns, the outcome of elections for lower positions may also be undermined by inadequate civic and voter education.

Voters will be required to make about six choices at the same time in the balloting booth.

“This, on its own, calls for a cautious choice of information to improve on the knowledge of voters,” said a report on reforms and preparedness for elections by the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation monitoring project released in May.

Findings from the survey showed that nearly a third of the respondents (29 per cent) do not know the role of a Governor.