By Stephen Makabila

Local political contests and supremacy tussles aside, presidential aspirants are now venturing across the oceans in search of an estimated close to 3 million Diaspora vote ahead of the General Election.

The Diaspora voting-bloc constitutes a third of eight million unregistered voters the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is targeting from August. This would bring to about 20 million the total number of voters expected to participate in the election.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is understood to have compiled a report profiling Kenyans abroad and how they are distributed. The report has reportedly been turned over to the IEBC to help in preparation for voter registration outside Kenya.

Those angling to succeed President Kibaki when he retires, have taken seriously the new voting bloc, which would constitute 15 per cent of the total registered voters, enough to tilt the scales in a closely contested election.

Among those who have shown keen interest in the diaspora vote include Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, Assistant Minister Peter Kenneth and Gichugu MP Martha Karua.

Tribalism issue

Kenya School of Law lecturer and a lawyer Martin Oloo says the Diaspora vote could tilt the presidential vote, but those outside are simply Kenyans who may also vote along tribal lines.

“The problem is that we have over-rated those in the Diaspora thinking they are liberated from tribalism but some of them are worse than those at home,” added Oloo.

He, however, noted that apart from the numbers, the Diaspora bloc could be beneficial in terms of its fund-raising ability, imparting of fresh campaign ideas and even technological input to those in the presidential race.

Currently, Kalonzo is in the United States for this business. He began his tour with an address to Kenyans in Boston where he said he was seeking the presidency to unite Kenya.

The VP’s tour comes less than two weeks after the PM also made a tour of the US and the UK where he addressed the London branch of Friends of Raila 2012, his official campaign lobby for the coming presidential elections.

Wamalwa on his part said he was planning tours across Europe and the US in June to seek support from Kenyans abroad and boost his bid.

“With the high number of those outside the country expected to vote this time round, no one can sit back and ignore them and be said to be a serious contender for the presidency,” said Wamalwa.

Kenneth, Karua, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto have in the past addressed Kenyans in the US in search of political support.

Kenneth also visited Japan last year, at the invitation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where held talks with Japanese officials and addressed Kenyans living in the world’s third largest economy. The weeklong visit saw him address Kenyans in Fukuoka and a gathering of Kenyans in Kyoto.

He will be heading to the UK on May 31 and Australia on June 10 for similar business. Kenneth is also scheduled to open diaspora office for Kenya National Congress party in Cape Town, South Africa.

Speaking in Boston during his latest tour, Kalonzo said he wants to lead the fight against corruption and expand the economy to create wealth.

“My Government will involve Kenyans living and working abroad in key decision making organs because of the critical role they play in boosting the economy through remittances currently topping one billion dollars,” he told hundreds of Kenyans gathered at the Boston Marriot Hotel.

Reform credentials

The tour will also take the VP, who is accompanied by MPs Elias Mbau (Maragua), Yusuf Hassan (Kamukunji) and Philip Kaloki (Kibwezi), to Texas, Atlanta, Minneapolis and Washington DC.

During Raila’s visit to UK, the FORA London branch chair John Baraza urged Kenyans to consider reform credentials of those seeking the presidency in the forth-coming election.

Raila who has a Diaspora desk in his office asked Kenyans abroad not to follow politicians who divide them on tribal lines, noting at independence, people were united and only divided by their political ideology.

FORA Secretary-General Eliud Owalo said apart from the UK and US branches, more diaspora branches in other parts of the world would be opened to boost Raila’s presidential bid. “We want to strengthen this official campaign lobby both locally and within the diaspora because its votes are as key as local votes,” he added.

Maseno University lecturer Martin Mulwale notes that because the diaspora population is spread around the world, it would be hard for one to imagine he can attract the entire vote or even more than 50 per cent of it.

Civil liberties

“First not all may vote and, second, their votes could be split among the many aspirants, reducing the ability of the bloc to significantly tilt the poll results in favour of one individual candidate,” added Dr Mulwale.

While in Boston, Kalonzo had praised Kenyans abroad for being at the forefront in the agitation for more civil liberties in the country, which has been realised through the new Constitution.

“You work hard to remit billions of shillings home, it is important now that the next government, which I hope to lead, will tap your ideas, creativity and innovation to propel the country forward,” he said.

In November last year, the PNU Alliance took the battle for the Diaspora vote a notch higher when Kalonzo announced the opening of an office in London. It became the first political party to set up shop in the UK, hoping to use the London office as recruiting centre for Kenyans in Europe.

Addressing Kenyans at the Crystal Hall, Ilford, East London, Kalonzo had then termed the move the first step towards co-ordinating the search for the crucial Diaspora vote.

Mandera Central MP Abdikadir Mohammed, who is the chairman of the Constitutional Implementation Oversight Committee, had noted in an earlier interview with The Standard that the size of the Diaspora vote is large enough that no serious presidential aspirant can ignore. Abdikadir had noted most of the voters are concentrated in Western Europe and North America, adding that the various presidential camps are scrambling to map out the vote-rich regions.

More visits expected

The Secretary of the ODM Parliamentary Group and Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba also concurred, describing the Diaspora vote as a “huge pool” that could prove decisive in the elections due next year.

“This is going to be the swing vote. It could be the turning point especially in a tight contest. I expect the number of visits by presidential aspirants abroad to increase as we hit the homestretch,” Ababu said.