By BEN AGINA

Uhuru Kenyatta’s launch of his own political party ends anxiety among supporters over which outfit he will use for his planned presidential campaign.

The National Alliance (TNA) is to be unveiled at an extravagant, high profile event today expected to draw tens of thousands of people, including about 100 Members of Parliament, to the Kenyatta International Conference Centre in Nairobi.

The launch marks a turning point in the political career of the Deputy Prime Minister, who has been bogged down by perceptions his career grew on the backs of two presidents and because he carries the name of a former one.

After leaving Kanu, the independence party his father Jomo Kenyatta led Kenya with, Uhuru is striking out on his own. He has sidestepped PNU and its surrogates, headed by Prof George Saitoti, as well as the Alliance Party of Kenya, pushed by Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi.

This allows the Deputy Prime Minister to kill two birds with one stone: He avoids being seen as a ‘project’ of President Kibaki and leaves behind the baggage and divisions PNU has accumulated in the president’s second term.

His new outfit also frees him from having to carry along sitting parliamentarians in the alliance. Many, especially in the central Kenya region, hope to ride on his coattails into the next Parliament. But with opinion polls showing voters may send many of the MPs home come Election Day, these inherited backers would have been a liability.

By abandoning Kanu, Uhuru was trying to shake off his past as a ‘project’ of former President Daniel Moi and other conservatives in the party. Mr Moi nominated Uhuru to Parliament after he was locked out at the ballot on his first try and was behind his first unsuccessful attempt to get to State House. 

As Kanu chairman, Uhuru neglected the party in favour of a deal with President Kibaki’s PNU-led alliance that saw him hold powerful Cabinet positions, including the current one of Deputy PM in the Grand Coalition. His clout in the Kibaki government has created a perception he is a favoured successor.

Run-off election
Pollsters from the country’s three most credible firms cast Uhuru as trailing only Prime Minister Raila Odinga as Kenya’s preferred replacement for Kibaki. There is some disagreement on how large the gap between them is, but two of the three say the duo would be neck and neck in a run-off election, with a small group of undecided voters (about 12-15 per cent) determining a winner. This is before Uhuru had a party or rolled out a presidential campaign.

Raila enjoys the incumbency of office as Prime Minister, by virtue of being co-principal with President Kibaki in the Grand Coalition. He is also now the undisputed leader and shoo-in presidential nominee of an established political unit, the Orange Democratic Movement.

There has been an expectation legal, political or practical hurdles would keep Uhuru out of the presidential race, following his committal to trial this year at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
He faces charges related to crimes committed using the Mungiki criminal gang after the 2007 General Election.

The Deputy PM is awaiting the determination of an appeal of the decision to go to full trial. However, supporters like Mathira MP Ephraim Maina are keen to kill off talk the ICC accused is only preparing to back another candidate for president. “We are not in the business of looking for a flag bearer because we already have one,” Mr Maina says, indicating a resolve shared by others in central Kenya. GNU Partly leader Mwangi Kiunjuri said as a party, they will support TNA through and through.

“As GNU, we do not have a presidential aspirant. Our support for the big seat is with Uhuru,” said Mr Kiunjuri when contacted.
He added: “We shall attend the launch in solidarity with him. Uhuru has always supported GNU activities.”

PNU secretary general Maina Kamanda said they have no problem with Uhuru launching his outfit.
Mr Kamanda revealed that after today’s launch all parties that were originally within the PNU family will sit down and strategise on how to field one presidential candidate  to contest against Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

In the last two years, the old money around President Kibaki’s administration has drifted towards Raila. This includes major players who were the backbone of Kibaki’s Democratic Party (DP) and Narc campaigns, and supported his PNU re-election bid in 2007. They are believed to be hedging their bets because of the uncertainty hanging over Uhuru’s head owing to his legal troubles at the ICC.

Before Gema leader Njenga Karume died three months ago, he was actively seeking support for the PM. Another long time DP player who has been talking warmly about the PM’s presidential credentials is businessman Joe ‘JB’ Wanjui. Their thinking is shared by a number of others from central Kenya, including former Attorney-General Charles Njonjo, Kiambaa MP Stanley Githunguri and media owner Samuel ‘SK’ Macharia.

With his new political party, the Gatundu South MP starts off on a new slate, free to negotiate and craft political deals on his own terms. Uhuru is not walking into a vacuum, however, and must contend with several challenges.

Top among them is how to manage the expectations and ambitions of current and aspiring leaders in the central and Mt Kenya region. Many are scattered in a plethora of parties they are reluctant to leave, among them PNU, The Alliance Party, Narc-Kenya, Safina, the United Democratic Forum Party (UDF), the Grand National Union (GNU) and the Mt Kenya East Leadership Forum. Uhuru’s TNA could mark the beginning of the end for many parties and political careers if it begins a wave they do not join.

Political Skill
Persuading them to line up behind him without an acrimonious falling out will be the first test of Uhuru’s political skills as he takes his first big move without President Moi’s or Kibaki’s open help. Most of his allies are anxious to see if his new outfit, its structures, key allies and core values will have space for them.

But perhaps the greatest anxiety is scaled up among his allies in the G7, top among them Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, who wants the informal group’s endorsement, and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, who is trying to raise his profile and present himself as a credible running mate.

They are all invited to today’s launch. Kalonzo is out of the country and may not return in time to attend. Ruto has an engagement in Meru this morning but is expected to turn up. Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa is expected to attend.

Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi, who is not part of the G7 but has expressed interest in working with its leaders, will be in Mombasa for a UDF rally in Tononoka, not far off from another in Likoni by ODM’s Raila Odinga.