42 percent of Kenyans not in any party - survey

By Peter Orengo

A study conducted by the University of Nairobi’s Institute of Development Studies (IDS) shows that 42 per cent of Kenyans do not belong to any political party.

In the round five of its Afro-Barometer survey touching on political party affiliation, presidential candidate preference and the governments performance on security, The Institute of Development Studies (IDS) said over 42 per cent of Kenyans said they are not affiliated to any political party, with the majority coming from the urban centers.

The survey also reveals that 31 percent of Kenyans are yet to decide who they will vote for while 42 percent do not know their party of choice.

And on security, 53 per cent of Kenyans feel the current government is handling the crime reduction in the country very well, and an overwhelming 82 per cent support the work of the Kenya Defence Force work in Somalia against Al Shabab.

The report was done by lead researchers of the Afro-Barometer Round 5 Kenya survey who included Professor Winnie Mitullah, Dr Adams Oloo, Dr Joshua Kivuva, Dr Paul Kamau and Mr Abel Oyuke.

The report was released amid frenzied re-organisation by local politicians in readiness for the impending general elections.

The survey which was conducted between November 4 and December 5, 2011 indicated that should elections be held tomorrow, ODM could garner 34 percent support followed by Party of National Unity (PNU) at 20 percent.

"These figures show that there is still a huge number of voters out there who are yet to make up their mind. This group maybe the swing vote that political candidates who want to win the next general elections have to convince to vote for them," said Adams Oloo when presenting the report at a Nairobi hotel.

Party loyalty

Going by counties, respondents from Busia, Homa Bay, Tharaka Nithi, Bungoma and Kisumu, were largely committed to a political party - each scoring over 80 per cent.

Laikipia county scored the least, at 25 percent on a particular party loyalty barometer.

"The high Busia loyalty to a party can be attributed to the fact that they are sure its name will be in the ballot paper because other parties have not made inroads in the county.

"The poor show of Laikipia is because the alliances supported by leaders from the area are still disjointed without an obviuos leadership structure," said Mr Oloo.

On matters of security, 53 per cent of Kenyans feel the current government is handling the crime reduction inside the country very well while 46 per cent say the government is doing badly.

Over 2400 repondents were interviewed in the survey in 44 counties, excluding, Mandera, Samburu and Lamu due to insecurity at the time.

Dr Joshua Kivuva, a partner in the survey, agreed that the rebranding race, party takeovers, disputes over posts and election dates, and emergence of new alliances and collapse of the old ones may send a wrong message to the would be voters.

The Afrobarometer is an independent, nonpartisan research project that measures the social, political, and economic atmosphere in Africa.