Health CAS Rashid Aman addresses a press conference on coronavirus update, in Nairobi, yesterday. [David Njaaga, Standard]
The government is re-evaluating Covid-19 projections to determine the actual peak of the disease as the country recorded 418 new cases.
The re-evaluation comes as the daily cases reported surpass what was earlier projected.
In June, the ministry predicted that the peak will be around August or September when the country will be recording an average of 200 cases a day.
The deaths were projected to be between 160 and 180.
However, the death toll now stands at 238 with the national tally of Covid-19 cases standing at 13,771.
Within the last few days, the country has recorded the highest number of deaths with 12 on July 13, and 688 Covid-19 cases on July 18, as the highest so far in a day.
Enough data
Health Chief Administrative Secretary Rashid Aman said the ministry is working with late August to early September as the expected peak.
“But this is likely to change as we continue to report rise in cases of 400, 600 or 700 in a day,” said Dr Aman.
The CAS explained that while initially, the ministry was borrowing foreign models used in other nations on the onset of the disease, there is now enough data to formulate new postulations.
The ministry now has enough data collected in the last four months which should determine how the disease is morphing itself in the country.
He said the team responsible for the postulation will be tasked to relook at the models by considering the new highs being reported daily and come up with a probable expected peak.
“The modelling we use is very complex. We do not just look at the number of new infections or deaths. We also look at the impact of the containment measures. These need to be quantified and entered into that model to be able to give you the right predictions,” he said.
He said models will change with time depending on the data it generates.
But with Covid-19 having spread to 44 counties, the CAS said it is unlikely that the disease has permeated every corner of the country. So far Baringo, Samburu and West Pokot counties have not reported any case of coronavirus.
“It is our hope and prayer it remains this way but the reality on the ground might be different. Probably there are undetected cases as targeted testing has not unveiled them,” said Aman.
The silver lining in the grim number of deaths and new cases witnessed and what may be in store in the future, is the recently launched home-based care programme which has increased the recoveries.
The number of recoveries now stands at 5,616. The country recorded 494 recoveries yesterday out of which 465 are from home-based care while 29 are from hospital discharges.