Banking on NEP point men to deliver votes

By Abdikadir Sugow

Despite its relatively lower number of voters compared to the rest of the country, the vast North Eastern Province (NEP) has suddenly become a hunting ground for top presidential contenders.

NEP’s geopolitical significance has been reinforced by the creation of the three counties of Mandera, Garissa and Wajir, which have added a twist to campaigns of governor and senator.

These key positions have attracted heated political competition and behind the scenes scheming just like the hotly contested seats of Member of Parliament (NEP has seven new constituencies, which brings the total to 18).

Together with other newly-created electoral positions for Women’s Representatives and the new-look Ward Representatives, the stakes are high across the board, with rich political pickings for presidential candidates as well as the local political players.

Intense lobbying among the influential politicians from the region and presidential candidates has led to frantic scramble for party share and votes in complex dynamics of old loyalties, personalities and new ideological leanings.

So far the main protagonists appear to be Uhuru Kenyatta of The National Alliance (TNA) and Raila Odinga of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

However, William Ruto’s United Republican Party (URP) is clawing in, Vice President Kilonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Democratic Movement party has a significant following, while Musalia Mudavadi’s United Democratic Front (UDF) is still scrambling for a share of the NEP votes.

Because of this restructured strategic regional positioning and the dimensions of the new constitutional dispensation, this is one of the regions that will determine who becomes the fourth President of Kenya.

All the presidential candidates have placed NEP high in the order of their campaigns, devising secretive political strategies ahead of the final stretch towards the March 4  General Election.

Tilt the balance

In the mind of each presidential candidate will be the estimated 500,000-plus voters expected to be registered at the end of the November.

Despite the relatively lower number of voters, every presidential candidate knows that the province will come in handy in the requirement of 25 per cent of votes in five provinces, let alone the swing vote that could tilt the balance for the 51 per cent rule for an outright win or in case of a run-off. This time round, the leading presidential candidates are relying on key point men from the region to deliver votes in the usually pro-government province who too have started making promises to the electorate.

ODM has appointed Deputy Speaker Farah Maalim (Lagdera MP, Garissa County) to lead its presidential campaign in the province. He will be assisted by Cabinet Minister Mohamed Elmi (Wajir East MP, Wajir County) and Assistant minister Mohammed Maalim Mohamoud (Mandera West MP, Mandera County).

Uhuru’s hunt for votes in the region will largely be spearheaded by Defence minister Mohammed Yussuf Haji, alongside a number of current and former MPs allied to TNA.

Wiper will bank on Nominated MP Mohammed Abdi Affey and former MP Ibrahim Salat, who is said to be contemplating to vie for MP for newly-created Mbalambala constituency or Garissa County Senator.

But URP has steadily gained influence in the region, effectively shaking the political equation ODM and PNU (read TNA now), have been enjoying in the region.

URP has formidable point men including Dujis MP Aden Bare Duale (Garissa County), Mandera East MP Mohamed Hussein Ali alias Qaras (Mandera County) and immediate PNU national treasurer and a former Cabinet minister Mohammud Mohammed Abdi (Wajir County).

The only known UDF point man in the region, is Abdikadir Hussein Mohammed (Mandera Central MP).